Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 75% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 2 trading days (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.52), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, BMY sits noticeably below the Healthcare sector benchmark of 100%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, so this ticker touches more slowly than peers.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Jul 2, 2026 (±1 day), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 75%-25pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 2d+1.0d vs sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.52+0.36 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 75% | -25pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 2d | +1.0d vs sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.52 | +0.36 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -1.04% | -0.71pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 35% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.93% | +0.48pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 12 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±1 day.
| Dividend | $0.63 |
| Per-event yield | 1.02% |
| Annualized yield | 4.19% |
| Previously paid | Apr 2, 2026 ($0.63) |
| Last record date | Apr 2, 2026 |
| Last payment date | May 1, 2026 |
BMY Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.63 | -2.30% | $61.73 | >30 | no | no | -7.31% | -4.02% | |
| Q1 | $0.63 | -1.35% | $53.94 | 3 | yes | yes | -3.49% | +4.73% | |
| Q4 | $0.62 | -1.16% | $45.73 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.49% | -2.51% | |
| Q3 | $0.62 | -0.88% | $47.63 | 3 | yes | yes | -3.04% | -0.31% | |
| Q2 | $0.62 | -1.73% | $57.82 | >30 | no | no | -15.57% | -11.22% | |
| Q1 | $0.62 | -0.79% | $56.79 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.49% | -1.43% | |
| Q4 | $0.60 | -1.48% | $54.20 | 2 | yes | yes | -5.33% | -2.58% | |
| Q3 | $0.60 | -0.80% | $40.06 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.77% | +2.50% | |
| Q2 | $0.60 | -0.46% | $52.18 | >30 | no | no | -8.59% | -4.71% | |
| Q1 | $0.60 | -0.75% | $52.30 | 2 | yes | yes | -7.02% | -2.83% | |
| Q4 | $0.57 | -1.22% | $56.73 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.82% | +0.18% | |
| Q3 | $0.57 | -1.65% | $64.73 | 12 | no | yes | -5.13% | -2.90% | |
| Q2 | $0.57 | -0.19% | $69.82 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.39% | +1.72% | |
| Q1 | $0.57 | -1.21% | $72.62 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.57% | -0.62% | |
| Q4 | $0.54 | -0.92% | $71.45 | 7 | no | yes | -4.37% | -0.20% | |
| Q2 | $0.54 | -1.60% | $78.28 | >30 | no | no | -6.44% | -3.01% | |
| Q1 | $0.54 | -0.35% | $73.72 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.00% | +5.53% | |
| Q1 | $0.54 | -0.71% | $62.16 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.09% | +4.79% | |
| Q3 | $0.49 | -0.73% | $60.62 | >30 | no | no | -6.53% | -1.85% | |
| Q3 | $0.49 | -0.60% | $66.82 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.15% | +1.24% |
- -4.02%
- +4.73%
- -2.51%
- -0.31%
- -11.22%
- -1.43%
- -2.58%
- +2.50%
- -4.71%
- -2.83%
- +0.18%
- -2.90%
- +1.72%
- -0.62%
- -0.20%
- -3.01%
- +5.53%
- +4.79%
- -1.85%
- +1.24%
BMY Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 3 | 15% | |
| 2–3 days | 10 | 50% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 5 | 25% |
BMY Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with BMY's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $126.00
- After-tax dividend
- $81.90
- Slippage round-trip
- -$12.35
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$69.55
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.56%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~28.4%
BMY Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical BMY ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · BMY (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.73% | |
| -1.85% | |
| +0.87% | |
| +0.73% | |
| -3.01% | |
| -0.20% | |
| +0.78% | |
| +0.82% | |
| -2.90% | |
| +1.00% | |
| +1.15% | |
| -4.71% | |
| +1.50% | |
| +1.11% | |
| +1.09% | |
| -11.22% | |
| +1.30% | |
| +1.36% | |
| +1.17% | |
| -4.02% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.