Donaldson Company (DCI) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.20), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, DCI sits roughly in line with the Industrials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 15, 2026 (±7 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.20in line with sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.20 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.26% | in line with sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 40% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.55% | +0.48pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 24 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±7 days.
| Dividend | $0.32 |
| Per-event yield | 0.29% |
| Annualized yield | 1.41% |
| Previously paid | Feb 12, 2026 ($0.30) |
| Last record date | Feb 12, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Feb 27, 2026 |
DCI Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Donaldson Company (DCI). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.30 | 0.68% | $110.57 | 1 | yes | yes | -22.18% | -2.27% | |
| Q4 | $0.30 | -0.71% | $94.16 | 24 | no | yes | -4.33% | -1.69% | |
| Q3 | $0.30 | 0.07% | $72.38 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.39% | +4.05% | |
| Q2 | $0.30 | 0.73% | $68.66 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.38% | +1.46% | |
| Q1 | $0.27 | 0.13% | $69.82 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.76% | -1.09% | |
| Q4 | $0.27 | 0.37% | $72.88 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.15% | -0.96% | |
| Q3 | $0.27 | 0.17% | $71.18 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.28% | +2.56% | |
| Q2 | $0.27 | -0.56% | $71.70 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.02% | +0.78% | |
| Q1 | $0.25 | -0.51% | $67.05 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.16% | -0.79% | |
| Q4 | $0.25 | -0.90% | $61.41 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.01% | +2.07% | |
| Q3 | $0.25 | -0.08% | $62.35 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.91% | -2.18% | |
| Q2 | $0.25 | -0.45% | $58.41 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.45% | +5.14% | |
| Q1 | $0.23 | 0.38% | $63.08 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.73% | +1.35% | |
| Q4 | $0.23 | -1.30% | $60.96 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.05% | -2.03% | |
| Q3 | $0.23 | -0.77% | $56.90 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.22% | -3.97% | |
| Q2 | $0.23 | -1.20% | $53.50 | >30 | no | no | -14.02% | -9.33% | |
| Q1 | $0.22 | -1.74% | $55.08 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.37% | -2.81% | |
| Q4 | $0.22 | 0.79% | $55.74 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.65% | +5.26% | |
| Q3 | $0.22 | -0.03% | $68.31 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.19% | -1.74% | |
| Q2 | $0.22 | -0.14% | $63.11 | 13 | no | yes | -4.10% | -1.73% |
- -2.27%
- -1.69%
- +4.05%
- +1.46%
- -1.09%
- -0.96%
- +2.56%
- +0.78%
- -0.79%
- +2.07%
- -2.18%
- +5.14%
- +1.35%
- -2.03%
- -3.97%
- -9.33%
- -2.81%
- +5.26%
- -1.74%
- -1.73%
DCI Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 17 | 85% | |
| 2–3 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
DCI Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with DCI's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $64.00
- After-tax dividend
- $41.60
- Slippage round-trip
- -$22.11
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$19.49
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.09%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~4.4%
DCI Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical DCI ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · DCI (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| -1.73% | |
| +0.32% | |
| +0.39% | |
| +0.40% | |
| -9.33% | |
| +0.40% | |
| +0.38% | |
| +0.36% | |
| +0.43% | |
| +0.40% | |
| +0.41% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.38% | |
| +0.38% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.39% | |
| +0.44% | |
| +0.41% | |
| -1.69% | |
| +0.27% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.