DuPont de Nemours (DD) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.53), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, DD sits roughly in line with the Basic Materials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.53+0.31 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.53 | +0.31 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.15% | +0.26pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 65% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.38% | +1.33pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 7 | — |
Next ex-dividend
The company has not declared a dividend, and we don't have enough recent history to extrapolate a reliable estimate.
DD Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for DuPont de Nemours (DD). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.20 | -1.92% | $50.04 | >30 | no | no | -13.97% | -9.19% | |
| Q4 | $0.20 | -0.05% | $39.44 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.29% | +3.22% | |
| Q3 | $0.41 | -0.34% | $32.48 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.54% | +1.42% | |
| Q2 | $0.41 | -1.32% | $28.86 | 7 | no | yes | -5.89% | +0.21% | |
| Q1 | $0.41 | 0.47% | $34.21 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.44% | -4.82% | |
| Q4 | $0.38 | -0.80% | $35.10 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.05% | -0.20% | |
| Q3 | $0.38 | 0.00% | $34.90 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.70% | -3.52% | |
| Q2 | $0.38 | -0.38% | $34.23 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.21% | -1.08% | |
| Q1 | $0.38 | -1.13% | $29.12 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.99% | +2.30% | |
| Q4 | $0.36 | 0.07% | $29.83 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.21% | +0.27% | |
| Q3 | $0.36 | 0.52% | $32.56 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.10% | +0.09% | |
| Q2 | $0.36 | 0.11% | $28.28 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.81% | +6.36% | |
| Q1 | $0.36 | 0.56% | $30.51 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.62% | +1.02% | |
| Q4 | $0.33 | -0.21% | $29.02 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.34% | +2.03% | |
| Q3 | $0.33 | -0.08% | $24.87 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.78% | -0.12% | |
| Q2 | $0.33 | 0.00% | $28.19 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.14% | +1.60% | |
| Q1 | $0.33 | 0.44% | $31.62 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.63% | -0.51% | |
| Q4 | $0.30 | 0.47% | $32.20 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.12% | +0.19% | |
| Q3 | $0.30 | 0.68% | $31.07 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.35% | +0.90% | |
| Q2 | $0.30 | 0.66% | $34.96 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.92% | +3.26% |
- -9.19%
- +3.22%
- +1.42%
- +0.21%
- -4.82%
- -0.20%
- -3.52%
- -1.08%
- +2.30%
- +0.27%
- +0.09%
- +6.36%
- +1.02%
- +2.03%
- -0.12%
- +1.60%
- -0.51%
- +0.19%
- +0.90%
- +3.26%
DD Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 18 | 90% | |
| 2–3 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
DD Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with DD's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $40.00
- After-tax dividend
- $26.00
- Slippage round-trip
- -$10.01
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$15.99
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.16%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~8.1%
DD Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical DD ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · DD (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.86% | |
| +0.97% | |
| +0.93% | |
| +1.04% | |
| +1.17% | |
| +1.33% | |
| +1.14% | |
| +1.18% | |
| +1.27% | |
| +1.11% | |
| +1.21% | |
| +1.30% | |
| +1.11% | |
| +1.09% | |
| +1.08% | |
| +1.20% | |
| +0.21% | |
| +1.26% | |
| +0.51% | |
| -9.19% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.