Ticker League

Fair Value for Devon Energy (DVN)

See growth priced into Devon Energy (DVN): reverse DCF, implied rate vs history and analysts, FCF view. Free intrinsic value calculator for education.

Fair value (multi-method)

Four independent methods triangulate what DVN is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.

Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)

$73.00

Margin of safety
+39.34% vs current price $44.28

Method range

$10.39 $73.00

median $50.33

Methods disagree

Valuation methods

Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.

  • Forward DCF$73.00
  • Exit multiple$40.82
  • Analyst target$59.83
  • Graham number$10.39

Stock price

$44.28

FCF / share (TTM)

$1.02

3Y FCF CAGR

3.3%

Fair value @ hist. growth

$27.08

This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.

Implied FCF growth

9.4%

per year over your projection horizon

Premium vs DCF

Margin of safety -63.5% vs hist-growth DCF

Historical 3Y CAGR

3.3%

Your model implies

9.4%

Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.

Model inputs

Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.

Discount rate (cost of equity proxy)6.6%
Terminal growth2.50%
Projection years10 yr
FCF growth per year (supplemental projection)3%
3Y CAGR 3%

Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 3% annual growth.

Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions

Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.

Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%
5.0%6.2%4.8%3.1%1.1%-1.6%
5.6%8.4%7.2%5.8%4.2%2.3%
6.6%11.4%10.4%9.4%8.1%6.8%
7.6%14.0%13.2%12.3%11.4%10.3%
8.6%16.4%15.7%15.0%14.2%13.3%
Color≤ historical CAGRModerate premiumHigh premium (≥ 15pp above hist)Your inputs

Historical multiples

Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.

P/EToday8.7
5Y low6.7
Median7.7
5Y high10.4
P/SToday1.3· at low
5Y low1.3
Median1.9
5Y high2.4
EV/EBITDAToday4.0
5Y low3.9
Median4.4
5Y high6.2

Net debt

$7.3B

Total debt − cash

Beta

0.42

Vs market benchmark

Frequently asked questions