Energy Transfer LP (ET) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 84% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 5 trading days (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.99), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, ET sits noticeably below the Energy sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, so this ticker touches more slowly than peers.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 7, 2026 (±0 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 84%-11pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 5d+4.0d vs sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.99+0.66 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 84% | -11pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 5d | +4.0d vs sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.99 | +0.66 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -1.80% | -0.99pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 70% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -4.23% | +0.96pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 17 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±0 days.
| Dividend | $0.34 |
| Per-event yield | 1.86% |
| Annualized yield | 6.90% |
| Previously paid | Feb 6, 2026 ($0.34) |
| Last record date | Feb 6, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Feb 19, 2026 |
ET Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Energy Transfer LP (ET). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.34 | -2.14% | $18.19 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.64% | +4.92% | |
| Q4 | $0.33 | -2.43% | $16.87 | 6 | no | yes | -4.09% | +2.80% | |
| Q3 | $0.33 | -1.65% | $17.62 | 11 | no | yes | -3.01% | -0.28% | |
| Q2 | $0.33 | -1.32% | $17.37 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.07% | +5.22% | |
| Q1 | $0.33 | -1.82% | $20.37 | 2 | yes | yes | -5.45% | -0.27% | |
| Q4 | $0.32 | -1.78% | $17.41 | 7 | no | yes | -3.16% | +1.16% | |
| Q3 | $0.32 | -2.15% | $16.25 | 6 | no | yes | -5.72% | +2.28% | |
| Q2 | $0.32 | -1.73% | $16.23 | >30 | no | no | -5.67% | +0.29% | |
| Q1 | $0.32 | -2.31% | $14.31 | 8 | no | yes | -3.63% | -0.24% | |
| Q4 | $0.31 | -2.28% | $13.57 | 5 | yes | yes | -4.94% | +2.97% | |
| Q3 | $0.31 | -2.45% | $13.07 | 7 | no | yes | -4.67% | +1.84% | |
| Q2 | $0.31 | -0.87% | $12.61 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.41% | +0.14% | |
| Q1 | $0.30 | -1.81% | $13.28 | >30 | no | no | -4.37% | -0.19% | |
| Q4 | $0.27 | -2.83% | $12.36 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.88% | +1.82% | |
| Q3 | $0.23 | -2.16% | $11.11 | 4 | yes | yes | -2.97% | +7.11% | |
| Q2 | $0.20 | -0.67% | $11.88 | 17 | no | yes | -12.79% | -5.30% | |
| Q1 | $0.17 | -1.37% | $10.24 | 5 | yes | yes | -4.69% | +0.34% | |
| Q4 | $0.15 | -1.96% | $9.68 | >30 | no | no | -7.23% | -3.69% | |
| Q3 | $0.15 | -0.54% | $9.27 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.59% | +6.50% | |
| Q2 | $0.15 | 1.12% | $9.84 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.67% | +7.35% |
- +4.92%
- +2.80%
- -0.28%
- +5.22%
- -0.27%
- +1.16%
- +2.28%
- +0.29%
- -0.24%
- +2.97%
- +1.84%
- +0.14%
- -0.19%
- +1.82%
- +7.11%
- -5.30%
- +0.34%
- -3.69%
- +6.50%
- +7.35%
ET Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 4 | 20% | |
| 2–3 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 4–5 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 6–10 days | 5 | 25% | |
| 11–30 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 30+ | 3 | 15% |
ET Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with ET's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $68.00
- After-tax dividend
- $44.20
- Slippage round-trip
- -$3.64
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$40.56
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +1.11%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~56.2%
ET Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical ET ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · ET (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +1.55% | |
| +1.65% | |
| -3.69% | |
| +1.71% | |
| -5.30% | |
| +2.07% | |
| +2.14% | |
| -0.19% | |
| +2.44% | |
| +1.84% | |
| +2.30% | |
| -0.24% | |
| +0.29% | |
| +2.28% | |
| +1.16% | |
| +1.60% | |
| +1.89% | |
| -0.28% | |
| +2.80% | |
| +1.84% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.