Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what HIG-PG is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$1,672.82
Method range
$68.54 – $1,672.82
median $123.84
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $1,672.82 | +1,173.75% |
| Exit multiple | $123.84 | -5.70% |
| Analyst target | — | — |
| Graham number | $68.54 | -47.81% |
- Forward DCF$1,672.82
- Exit multiple$123.84
- Analyst target—
- Graham number$68.54
Stock price
$131.33
FCF / share (TTM)
$3.64
3Y FCF CAGR
15.8%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$247.70
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
7.8%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety 47.0% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
15.8%
Your model implies
7.8%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 16% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 1.0% | -1.0% | -3.5% |
| 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 1.3% |
| 6.9% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 5.4% |
| 7.9% | 12.2% | 11.4% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 8.7% |
| 8.9% | 14.5% | 13.8% | 13.1% | 12.4% | 11.6% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$4.2B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.47
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
The Hartford (HIG-PG) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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