Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what INCY is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$492.53
Method range
$30.88 – $492.53
median $135.77
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $492.53 | +381.08% |
| Exit multiple | $162.98 | +59.20% |
| Analyst target | $108.55 | +6.03% |
| Graham number | $30.88 | -69.84% |
- Forward DCF$492.53
- Exit multiple$162.98
- Analyst target$108.55
- Graham number$30.88
Stock price
$102.38
FCF / share (TTM)
$1.80
3Y FCF CAGR
27.4%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$202.10
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
18.2%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety 49.3% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
27.4%
Your model implies
18.2%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 27% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5% | 14.4% | 13.4% | 12.2% | 10.9% | 9.4% |
| 7.5% | 17.2% | 16.4% | 15.4% | 14.4% | 13.2% |
| 8.5% | 19.8% | 19.0% | 18.2% | 17.4% | 16.4% |
| 9.5% | 22.1% | 21.5% | 20.8% | 20.0% | 19.2% |
| 10.5% | 24.3% | 23.7% | 23.1% | 22.5% | 21.8% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net cash
$3.0B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.79
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Incyte (INCY) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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