LEN dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 100% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Lennar (LEN) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.13), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, LEN sits roughly in line with the Consumer Cyclical sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Oct 8, 2026 (±7 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
Touch rate (30d)
100%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.13
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.13 | -0.08 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | 0.03% | +0.45pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 65% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.61% | +0.89pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 10 | — |
Estimated from historical pattern ±7 days.
Dividend
$0.50
Per-event yield
0.59%
Annualized yield
2.37%
Previously paid
Jul 10, 2026 ($0.50)
Last record date
Jul 10, 2026
Last payment date
Jul 24, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Lennar (LEN). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 | $0.50 | 0.00% | $84.35 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.36% | +0.05% | |
| Q2 | $0.50 | 0.40% | $94.81 | 1 | yes | yes | -11.12% | -5.91% | |
| Q1 | $0.50 | -0.03% | $112.53 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.36% | +7.96% | |
| Q4 | $0.50 | 4.32% | $117.91 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.52% | +7.13% | |
| Q3 | $0.50 | -1.35% | $115.31 | 4 | yes | yes | -6.81% | -0.74% | |
| Q2 | $0.50 | 1.94% | $107.92 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.33% | +1.10% | |
| Q1 | $0.50 | -0.25% | $136.03 | 2 | yes | yes | -10.76% | -5.91% | |
| Q4 | $0.50 | -0.18% | $181.21 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.25% | +4.25% | |
| Q3 | $0.50 | -0.29% | $143.28 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.84% | +11.93% | |
| Q2 | $0.50 | 0.57% | $151.57 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.82% | +0.36% | |
| Q1 | $0.50 | -2.76% | $155.27 | 9 | no | yes | -6.76% | -2.38% | |
| Q4 | $0.38 | 0.41% | $113.07 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.49% | -5.23% | |
| Q3 | $0.38 | -1.94% | $124.29 | 4 | yes | yes | -3.76% | +4.96% | |
| Q2 | $0.38 | -0.29% | $112.13 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.92% | +1.15% | |
| Q1 | $0.38 | 0.39% | $99.04 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.88% | +9.51% | |
| Q4 | $0.38 | -0.50% | $78.16 | 10 | no | yes | -10.57% | -7.03% | |
| Q3 | $0.38 | 0.25% | $77.39 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.46% | +2.31% | |
| Q2 | $0.38 | -1.14% | $76.98 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.26% | +1.66% | |
| Q1 | $0.38 | 1.03% | $97.95 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.04% | -0.06% | |
| Q4 | $0.25 | 0.00% | $94.53 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.54% | +8.40% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 15 | 75% | |
| 2–3 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 4–5 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 6–10 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
Pre-filled with LEN's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical LEN ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
-0.11%
Win rate (20 trades)
90%
Cumulative P&L
-2.24%
Buy & hold (same sample)
-1.60%
Best event
+0.59%
Worst event
-7.03%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · LEN (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.26% | |
| +0.38% | |
| +0.49% | |
| +0.48% | |
| -7.03% | |
| +0.38% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.30% | |
| +0.33% | |
| -2.38% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.35% | |
| +0.28% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.46% | |
| +0.43% | |
| +0.42% | |
| +0.44% | |
| +0.53% | |
| +0.59% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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