Las Vegas Sands (LVS) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 12 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.16), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, LVS sits roughly in line with the Consumer Cyclical sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 4, 2026 (±4 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.16-0.06 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 12 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.16 | -0.06 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.24% | +0.23pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 68% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.51% | +1.17pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 3 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±4 days.
| Dividend | $0.30 |
| Per-event yield | 0.58% |
| Annualized yield | 2.10% |
| Previously paid | May 5, 2026 ($0.30) |
| Last record date | May 5, 2026 |
| Last payment date | May 13, 2026 |
LVS Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Las Vegas Sands (LVS). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.30 | -0.12% | $51.86 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.12% | — | |
| Q1 | $0.30 | -0.67% | $57.80 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.78% | +0.03% | |
| Q4 | $0.25 | -1.13% | $61.73 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.28% | +8.93% | |
| Q3 | $0.25 | 0.04% | $52.40 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.58% | +3.32% | |
| Q2 | $0.25 | -0.65% | $38.31 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.94% | +11.12% | |
| Q1 | $0.25 | -0.21% | $42.98 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.26% | +2.54% | |
| Q4 | $0.20 | -0.35% | $51.37 | 3 | yes | yes | -7.11% | -3.72% | |
| Q3 | $0.20 | 0.00% | $37.86 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.50% | +4.54% | |
| Q2 | $0.20 | 0.70% | $46.87 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.77% | +0.53% | |
| Q1 | $0.20 | -0.97% | $50.48 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.31% | +8.28% | |
| Q4 | $0.20 | 0.08% | $48.84 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.00% | -2.11% | |
| Q3 | $0.20 | 0.35% | $57.94 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.46% | -3.35% | |
| Q1 | $0.79 | 0.92% | $40.39 | 1 | yes | yes | -17.55% | +12.97% | |
| Q4 | $0.77 | -0.20% | $69.04 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.81% | +1.67% | |
| Q3 | $0.77 | -2.63% | $59.64 | 28 | no | yes | -7.86% | -5.37% | |
| Q2 | $0.77 | -0.37% | $57.06 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.49% | +1.95% | |
| Q1 | $0.77 | -0.65% | $60.08 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.53% | +1.31% | |
| Q4 | $0.75 | -2.19% | $54.84 | 13 | no | yes | -13.58% | -10.30% | |
| Q3 | $0.75 | -0.96% | $61.23 | 3 | yes | yes | -4.25% | +0.29% | |
| Q2 | $0.75 | -2.52% | $81.27 | >30 | no | no | -13.78% | -4.05% |
- —
- +0.03%
- +8.93%
- +3.32%
- +11.12%
- +2.54%
- -3.72%
- +4.54%
- +0.53%
- +8.28%
- -2.11%
- -3.35%
- +12.97%
- +1.67%
- -5.37%
- +1.95%
- +1.31%
- -10.30%
- +0.29%
- -4.05%
LVS Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 14 | 70% | |
| 2–3 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
LVS Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with LVS's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $60.00
- After-tax dividend
- $39.00
- Slippage round-trip
- -$10.37
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$28.63
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.28%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~13.9%
LVS Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical LVS ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · LVS (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| -4.05% | |
| +1.22% | |
| -10.30% | |
| +1.28% | |
| +1.35% | |
| -5.37% | |
| +1.12% | |
| +1.96% | |
| +0.35% | |
| +0.41% | |
| +0.40% | |
| +0.43% | |
| +0.53% | |
| +0.39% | |
| +0.58% | |
| +0.65% | |
| +0.48% | |
| +0.40% | |
| +0.52% | |
| +0.58% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.