LyondellBasell (LYB) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 74% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 3 trading days (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.72), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, LYB sits noticeably below the Basic Materials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, so this ticker touches more slowly than peers.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 31, 2026 (±6 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 74%-21pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 3d+2.0d vs sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.72+0.50 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 74% | -21pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 3d | +2.0d vs sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.72 | +0.50 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -1.87% | -1.46pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 30% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -8.03% | -3.32pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 29 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±6 days.
| Dividend | $0.69 |
| Per-event yield | 1.20% |
| Annualized yield | 6.14% |
| Previously paid | Mar 2, 2026 ($0.69) |
| Last record date | Mar 2, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 9, 2026 |
LYB Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for LyondellBasell (LYB). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.69 | -0.83% | $57.52 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.70% | +17.37% | |
| Q4 | $1.37 | -3.53% | $48.99 | 29 | no | yes | -13.92% | -10.90% | |
| Q3 | $1.37 | -3.27% | $58.77 | >30 | no | no | -10.36% | -2.65% | |
| Q2 | $1.37 | -2.39% | $56.49 | 4 | yes | yes | -5.89% | +5.95% | |
| Q1 | $1.34 | -0.89% | $77.50 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.71% | -1.30% | |
| Q4 | $1.34 | -1.68% | $83.34 | >30 | no | no | -10.10% | -5.63% | |
| Q3 | $1.34 | -0.45% | $98.29 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.57% | -1.25% | |
| Q2 | $1.34 | -1.64% | $99.42 | >30 | no | no | -6.15% | -2.53% | |
| Q1 | $1.25 | -1.57% | $100.28 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.77% | -0.09% | |
| Q4 | $1.25 | -1.06% | $94.96 | 4 | yes | yes | -3.60% | +1.89% | |
| Q3 | $1.25 | -0.54% | $97.28 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.79% | +5.08% | |
| Q2 | $1.25 | -0.77% | $88.77 | 5 | yes | yes | -4.47% | +2.48% | |
| Q1 | $1.19 | -0.60% | $97.69 | 1 | yes | yes | -16.84% | -7.75% | |
| Q4 | $1.19 | -1.17% | $88.09 | 29 | no | yes | -7.99% | -2.27% | |
| Q3 | $1.19 | -0.86% | $90.72 | >30 | no | no | -12.54% | -9.65% | |
| Q2 | $6.39 | -5.94% | $115.25 | >30 | no | no | -21.87% | -5.46% | |
| Q1 | $1.13 | -3.21% | $99.82 | 4 | yes | yes | -6.16% | +4.75% | |
| Q4 | $1.13 | -4.75% | $91.56 | 8 | no | yes | -8.07% | -3.34% | |
| Q3 | $1.13 | -0.45% | $101.19 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.84% | -4.28% | |
| Q2 | $1.13 | -0.45% | $117.86 | 1 | yes | yes | -14.37% | -5.65% |
- +17.37%
- -10.90%
- -2.65%
- +5.95%
- -1.30%
- -5.63%
- -1.25%
- -2.53%
- -0.09%
- +1.89%
- +5.08%
- +2.48%
- -7.75%
- -2.27%
- -9.65%
- -5.46%
- +4.75%
- -3.34%
- -4.28%
- -5.65%
LYB Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 6 | 30% | |
| 2–3 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 4–5 days | 4 | 20% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 30+ | 5 | 25% |
LYB Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with LYB's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $138.00
- After-tax dividend
- $89.70
- Slippage round-trip
- -$11.50
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$78.20
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.68%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~34.3%
LYB Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical LYB ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · LYB (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.96% | |
| +1.12% | |
| -3.34% | |
| +1.13% | |
| -5.46% | |
| -9.65% | |
| -2.27% | |
| +1.22% | |
| +1.41% | |
| +1.28% | |
| +1.32% | |
| +1.25% | |
| -2.53% | |
| +1.36% | |
| -5.63% | |
| +1.73% | |
| +2.43% | |
| -2.65% | |
| -10.90% | |
| +1.20% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.