LYB dividend capture — median 2d pre-ex touch, 75% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
LyondellBasell (LYB) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 75% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 2 trading days (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.69), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, LYB sits noticeably below the Basic Materials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, so this ticker touches more slowly than peers.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 31, 2026 (±6 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
Touch rate (30d)
75%
Median days-to-touch
2d
Signal-to-noise
0.69
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 75% | -20pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 2d | +1.0d vs sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.69 | +0.51 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -1.72% | -1.34pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 30% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -7.47% | -2.53pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 29 | — |
Estimated from historical pattern ±6 days.
Dividend
$0.69
Per-event yield
1.04%
Annualized yield
6.14%
Previously paid
Jun 1, 2026 ($0.69)
Last record date
Jun 1, 2026
Last payment date
Jun 8, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for LyondellBasell (LYB). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.69 | 1.28% | $66.65 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.95% | -2.30% | |
| Q1 | $0.69 | -0.83% | $57.52 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.70% | +17.37% | |
| Q4 | $1.37 | -3.53% | $48.99 | 29 | no | yes | -13.92% | -10.90% | |
| Q3 | $1.37 | -3.27% | $58.77 | >30 | no | no | -10.36% | -2.65% | |
| Q2 | $1.37 | -2.39% | $56.49 | 4 | yes | yes | -5.89% | +5.95% | |
| Q1 | $1.34 | -0.89% | $77.50 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.71% | -1.30% | |
| Q4 | $1.34 | -1.68% | $83.34 | >30 | no | no | -10.10% | -5.63% | |
| Q3 | $1.34 | -0.45% | $98.29 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.57% | -1.25% | |
| Q2 | $1.34 | -1.64% | $99.42 | >30 | no | no | -6.15% | -2.53% | |
| Q1 | $1.25 | -1.57% | $100.28 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.77% | -0.09% | |
| Q4 | $1.25 | -1.06% | $94.96 | 4 | yes | yes | -3.60% | +1.89% | |
| Q3 | $1.25 | -0.54% | $97.28 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.79% | +5.08% | |
| Q2 | $1.25 | -0.77% | $88.77 | 5 | yes | yes | -4.47% | +2.48% | |
| Q1 | $1.19 | -0.60% | $97.69 | 1 | yes | yes | -16.84% | -7.75% | |
| Q4 | $1.19 | -1.17% | $88.09 | 29 | no | yes | -7.99% | -2.27% | |
| Q3 | $1.19 | -0.86% | $90.72 | >30 | no | no | -12.54% | -9.65% | |
| Q2 | $6.39 | -5.94% | $115.25 | >30 | no | no | -21.87% | -5.46% | |
| Q1 | $1.13 | -3.21% | $99.82 | 4 | yes | yes | -6.16% | +4.75% | |
| Q4 | $1.13 | -4.75% | $91.56 | 8 | no | yes | -8.07% | -3.34% | |
| Q3 | $1.13 | -0.45% | $101.19 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.84% | -4.28% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 6 | 30% | |
| 2–3 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 4–5 days | 4 | 20% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 30+ | 5 | 25% |
Pre-filled with LYB's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical LYB ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
-1.30%
Win rate (20 trades)
60%
Cumulative P&L
-25.96%
Buy & hold (same sample)
-4.79%
Best event
+2.43%
Worst event
-10.90%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · LYB (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +1.12% | |
| -3.34% | |
| +1.13% | |
| -5.46% | |
| -9.65% | |
| -2.27% | |
| +1.22% | |
| +1.41% | |
| +1.28% | |
| +1.32% | |
| +1.25% | |
| -2.53% | |
| +1.36% | |
| -5.63% | |
| +1.73% | |
| +2.43% | |
| -2.65% | |
| -10.90% | |
| +1.20% | |
| +1.04% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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