Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what MOH is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$33.55
Method range
$22.23 – $174.67
median $62.74
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $33.55 | -82.42% |
| Exit multiple | $91.94 | -51.83% |
| Analyst target | $174.67 | -8.48% |
| Graham number | $22.23 | -88.35% |
- Forward DCF$33.55
- Exit multiple$91.94
- Analyst target$174.67
- Graham number$22.23
Stock price
$190.86
FCF / share (TTM)
$20.69
3Y FCF CAGR
-35.3%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$32.31
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
-5.6%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -490.8% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
-35.3%
Your model implies
-5.6%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at -35% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5% | -8.4% | -9.1% | -9.9% | -10.7% | -11.8% |
| 7.5% | -6.4% | -7.0% | -7.6% | -8.3% | -9.1% |
| 8.5% | -4.6% | -5.1% | -5.6% | -6.2% | -6.8% |
| 9.5% | -2.9% | -3.3% | -3.8% | -4.3% | -4.8% |
| 10.5% | -1.4% | -1.7% | -2.1% | -2.5% | -3.0% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net cash
$298M
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.80
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Molina Healthcare (MOH) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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