NextEra Energy (NEE) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.32), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, NEE sits roughly in line with the Utilities sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 4, 2026 (±6 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.32-0.14 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.32 | -0.14 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.56% | +0.12pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 65% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -2.40% | +1.44pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 20 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±6 days.
| Dividend | $0.62 |
| Per-event yield | 0.68% |
| Annualized yield | 2.77% |
| Previously paid | Feb 27, 2026 ($0.62) |
| Last record date | Feb 27, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 16, 2026 |
NEE Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for NextEra Energy (NEE). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.62 | -1.18% | $91.99 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.54% | -0.38% | |
| Q4 | $0.57 | -0.14% | $84.30 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.16% | +1.09% | |
| Q3 | $0.57 | -0.85% | $73.89 | 20 | no | yes | -6.29% | -3.28% | |
| Q2 | $0.57 | -1.26% | $70.64 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.27% | +2.59% | |
| Q1 | $0.57 | 0.30% | $69.38 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.52% | +5.79% | |
| Q4 | $0.52 | -0.17% | $77.36 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.15% | +0.29% | |
| Q3 | $0.52 | -0.55% | $80.03 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.96% | +2.09% | |
| Q2 | $0.52 | -0.65% | $80.02 | >30 | no | no | -10.77% | -3.17% | |
| Q1 | $0.52 | -1.55% | $56.78 | 8 | no | yes | -4.98% | -2.28% | |
| Q4 | $0.47 | 0.00% | $57.98 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.91% | +1.72% | |
| Q3 | $0.47 | -0.35% | $68.02 | 10 | no | yes | -3.91% | -2.74% | |
| Q2 | $0.47 | -0.35% | $73.39 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.06% | +0.91% | |
| Q1 | $0.47 | 0.07% | $72.92 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.50% | +2.67% | |
| Q4 | $0.42 | -0.68% | $84.11 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.53% | +1.36% | |
| Q3 | $0.42 | -1.23% | $88.06 | 6 | no | yes | -3.80% | -0.30% | |
| Q2 | $0.42 | -0.73% | $75.04 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.16% | +7.43% | |
| Q1 | $0.42 | -0.09% | $77.16 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.87% | +9.65% | |
| Q4 | $0.39 | -0.80% | $87.31 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.66% | +1.94% | |
| Q3 | $0.39 | -0.50% | $84.53 | 5 | yes | yes | -1.80% | +2.76% | |
| Q2 | $0.39 | 0.25% | $73.22 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.06% | -0.95% |
- -0.38%
- +1.09%
- -3.28%
- +2.59%
- +5.79%
- +0.29%
- +2.09%
- -3.17%
- -2.28%
- +1.72%
- -2.74%
- +0.91%
- +2.67%
- +1.36%
- -0.30%
- +7.43%
- +9.65%
- +1.94%
- +2.76%
- -0.95%
NEE Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 12 | 60% | |
| 2–3 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
NEE Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with NEE's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $124.00
- After-tax dividend
- $80.60
- Slippage round-trip
- -$18.40
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$62.20
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.34%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~17.0%
NEE Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical NEE ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · NEE (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.53% | |
| +0.46% | |
| +0.44% | |
| +0.55% | |
| +0.57% | |
| -0.30% | |
| +0.51% | |
| +0.64% | |
| +0.64% | |
| -2.74% | |
| +0.81% | |
| -2.28% | |
| -3.17% | |
| +0.64% | |
| +0.67% | |
| +0.82% | |
| +0.80% | |
| -3.28% | |
| +0.67% | |
| +0.68% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.