Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what NFLX is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$271.23
Method range
$11.47 – $271.23
median $109.64
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $271.23 | +295.78% |
| Exit multiple | $126.78 | +85.00% |
| Analyst target | $92.50 | +34.98% |
| Graham number | $11.47 | -83.27% |
- Forward DCF$271.23
- Exit multiple$126.78
- Analyst target$92.50
- Graham number$11.47
Stock price
$68.53
FCF / share (TTM)
$0.33
3Y FCF CAGR
82.8%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$560.57
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
46.7%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety 87.8% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
82.8%
Your model implies
46.7%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 83% annual growth.
Cumulative FCF covers the current price by year 8.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.3% | 42.9% | 42.2% | 41.4% | 40.6% | 39.7% |
| 11.3% | 45.5% | 44.8% | 44.1% | 43.4% | 42.6% |
| 12.3% | 47.9% | 47.3% | 46.7% | 46.0% | 45.3% |
| 13.3% | 50.2% | 49.7% | 49.1% | 48.5% | 47.9% |
| 14.3% | 52.5% | 52.0% | 51.4% | 50.9% | 50.3% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$5.43B
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.52
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Netflix (NFLX) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.