Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what NFLX is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$263.04
Method range
$14.40 – $263.04
median $119.78
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $263.04 | +220.08% |
| Exit multiple | $126.33 | +53.72% |
| Analyst target | $113.24 | +37.80% |
| Graham number | $14.40 | -82.47% |
- Forward DCF$263.04
- Exit multiple$126.33
- Analyst target$113.24
- Graham number$14.40
Stock price
$82.18
FCF / share (TTM)
$1.21
3Y FCF CAGR
82.8%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$2059.04
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
29.7%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety 96.0% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
82.8%
Your model implies
29.7%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 83% annual growth.
Cumulative FCF covers the current price by year 6.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.3% | 26.4% | 25.8% | 25.2% | 24.5% | 23.8% |
| 11.3% | 28.6% | 28.1% | 27.5% | 26.9% | 26.2% |
| 12.3% | 30.7% | 30.2% | 29.7% | 29.1% | 28.5% |
| 13.3% | 32.7% | 32.2% | 31.7% | 31.2% | 30.7% |
| 14.3% | 34.6% | 34.2% | 33.8% | 33.3% | 32.8% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.16
Low vs growth
Net debt
$5.4B
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.55
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Netflix (NFLX) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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