UnitedHealth Group (UNH) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.19), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, UNH sits roughly in line with the Healthcare sector benchmark of 100%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 14, 2026 (±5 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 100%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.19in line with sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.19 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.44% | -0.10pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 65% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.28% | +1.12pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 11 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±5 days.
| Dividend | $2.32 |
| Per-event yield | 0.81% |
| Annualized yield | 2.18% |
| Previously paid | Mar 9, 2026 ($2.21) |
| Last record date | Mar 9, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 17, 2026 |
UNH Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for UnitedHealth Group (UNH). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $2.21 | -1.56% | $286.48 | 2 | yes | yes | -4.01% | +0.43% | |
| Q4 | $2.21 | -0.67% | $330.91 | 4 | yes | yes | -3.42% | +3.75% | |
| Q3 | $2.21 | -0.35% | $352.51 | 7 | no | yes | -5.65% | -2.55% | |
| Q2 | $2.21 | -0.17% | $313.53 | 11 | no | yes | -5.74% | -1.82% | |
| Q1 | $2.10 | -0.24% | $493.48 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.74% | +1.55% | |
| Q4 | $2.10 | 0.43% | $549.62 | 1 | yes | yes | -13.43% | -8.92% | |
| Q3 | $2.10 | 0.11% | $594.32 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.77% | -3.16% | |
| Q2 | $2.10 | -1.16% | $497.12 | 9 | no | yes | -3.82% | -2.12% | |
| Q1 | $1.88 | -0.09% | $478.78 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.84% | +2.91% | |
| Q4 | $1.88 | -0.46% | $552.97 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.26% | -0.24% | |
| Q3 | $1.88 | -0.95% | $484.81 | 5 | yes | yes | -2.62% | +0.78% | |
| Q2 | $1.88 | 0.46% | $459.86 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.68% | +4.14% | |
| Q1 | $1.65 | -0.46% | $464.91 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.57% | +1.34% | |
| Q4 | $1.65 | -0.76% | $536.91 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.13% | +0.73% | |
| Q3 | $1.65 | 0.06% | $527.51 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.06% | -0.92% | |
| Q2 | $1.65 | -2.35% | $464.33 | 3 | yes | yes | -3.15% | +7.10% | |
| Q1 | $1.45 | -0.73% | $491.44 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.82% | +3.28% | |
| Q4 | $1.45 | 0.39% | $446.02 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.19% | +7.55% | |
| Q3 | $1.45 | 0.24% | $414.55 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.89% | +1.70% | |
| Q2 | $1.45 | -2.53% | $397.35 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.54% | +2.28% |
- +0.43%
- +3.75%
- -2.55%
- -1.82%
- +1.55%
- -8.92%
- -3.16%
- -2.12%
- +2.91%
- -0.24%
- +0.78%
- +4.14%
- +1.34%
- +0.73%
- -0.92%
- +7.10%
- +3.28%
- +7.55%
- +1.70%
- +2.28%
UNH Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 12 | 60% | |
| 2–3 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 4–5 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 6–10 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
UNH Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with UNH's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $464.00
- After-tax dividend
- $301.60
- Slippage round-trip
- -$57.30
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$244.30
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.43%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~21.5%
UNH Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical UNH ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · UNH (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.36% | |
| +0.35% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.30% | |
| +0.36% | |
| +0.31% | |
| +0.31% | |
| +0.35% | |
| +0.41% | |
| +0.39% | |
| +0.34% | |
| +0.39% | |
| -2.12% | |
| +0.35% | |
| +0.38% | |
| +0.43% | |
| -1.82% | |
| -2.55% | |
| +0.67% | |
| +0.77% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.