Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what UPWK is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$502.21
Method range
$4.96 – $502.21
median $23.21
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $502.21 | +5,815.36% |
| Exit multiple | $31.67 | +273.06% |
| Analyst target | $14.75 | +73.73% |
| Graham number | $4.96 | -41.61% |
- Forward DCF$502.21
- Exit multiple$31.67
- Analyst target$14.75
- Graham number$4.96
Stock price
$8.49
FCF / share (TTM)
$0.17
3Y FCF CAGR
161.9%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$16734.34
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
19.3%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety 99.9% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
161.9%
Your model implies
19.3%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 162% annual growth.
Cumulative FCF covers the current price by year 4.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.5% | 15.8% | 14.9% | 14.0% | 13.0% | 11.8% |
| 8.5% | 18.3% | 17.6% | 16.8% | 15.9% | 15.0% |
| 9.5% | 20.6% | 20.0% | 19.3% | 18.5% | 17.8% |
| 10.5% | 22.8% | 22.2% | 21.6% | 21.0% | 20.3% |
| 11.5% | 24.8% | 24.3% | 23.8% | 23.2% | 22.6% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.10
Low vs growth
Net debt
$83M
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.99
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Upwork (UPWK) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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