Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what AMAT is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$283.06
Method range
$48.93 – $518.36
median $257.03
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $283.06 | -37.52% |
| Exit multiple | $231.01 | -49.01% |
| Analyst target | $518.36 | +14.43% |
| Graham number | $48.93 | -89.20% |
- Forward DCF$283.06
- Exit multiple$231.01
- Analyst target$518.36
- Graham number$48.93
Stock price
$453.01
FCF / share (TTM)
$1.05
3Y FCF CAGR
7.9%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$14.83
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
60.1%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -2955.2% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
7.9%
Your model implies
60.1%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 8% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.9% | 56.2% | 55.4% | 54.6% | 53.8% | 52.9% |
| 11.9% | 58.8% | 58.2% | 57.4% | 56.7% | 55.9% |
| 12.9% | 61.4% | 60.8% | 60.1% | 59.4% | 58.7% |
| 13.9% | 63.9% | 63.3% | 62.7% | 62.1% | 61.4% |
| 14.9% | 66.3% | 65.8% | 65.2% | 64.6% | 64.0% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.75
Low vs growth
Net cash
$191M
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.67
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Applied Materials (AMAT) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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