Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what AMAT is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$297.76
Method range
$48.93 – $621.42
median $265.32
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $297.76 | -46.25% |
| Exit multiple | $232.89 | -57.96% |
| Analyst target | $621.42 | +12.19% |
| Graham number | $48.93 | -91.17% |
- Forward DCF$297.76
- Exit multiple$232.89
- Analyst target$621.42
- Graham number$48.93
Stock price
$553.92
FCF / share (TTM)
$1.05
3Y FCF CAGR
7.9%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$15.50
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
62.5%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -3,474.1% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
7.9%
Your model implies
62.5%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 8% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.5% | 58.3% | 57.5% | 56.7% | 55.8% | 54.8% |
| 11.5% | 61.1% | 60.4% | 59.6% | 58.8% | 58.0% |
| 12.5% | 63.8% | 63.2% | 62.5% | 61.7% | 60.9% |
| 13.5% | 66.4% | 65.8% | 65.1% | 64.5% | 63.8% |
| 14.5% | 68.9% | 68.3% | 67.7% | 67.1% | 66.5% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.75
Low vs growth
Net cash
$191M
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.57
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Applied Materials (AMAT) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
- Buybacks0.75% TTM
- Dividend Profile0.34% yield
- Dividend Calculator
- Dividend Forecast
- Dividend Capture
- Stock Split History9 splits
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.