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Fair Value for Amgen (AMGN)

See growth priced into Amgen (AMGN): reverse DCF, implied rate vs history and analysts, FCF view. Free intrinsic value calculator for education.

Fair value (multi-method)

Four independent methods triangulate what AMGN is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.

Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)

$364.92

Above fair value
-0.31% vs current price $366.05

Method range

$35.91 $478.21

median $360.16

Methods disagree

Valuation methods

Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.

  • Forward DCF$364.92
  • Exit multiple$478.21
  • Analyst target$355.40
  • Graham number$35.91

Stock price

$366.05

FCF / share (TTM)

$2.74

3Y FCF CAGR

0.5%

Fair value @ hist. growth

$57.04

This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.

Implied FCF growth

23.9%

per year over your projection horizon

Premium vs DCF

Margin of safety -541.8% vs hist-growth DCF

Historical 3Y CAGR

0.5%

Your model implies

23.9%

Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.

Model inputs

Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.

Discount rate (cost of equity proxy)6.7%
Terminal growth2.50%
Projection years10 yr
FCF growth per year (supplemental projection)1%
3Y CAGR 1%

Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 1% annual growth.

Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions

Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.

Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%
5.0%20.1%18.4%16.4%14.0%11.0%
5.7%22.8%21.4%19.8%17.9%15.7%
6.7%26.3%25.1%23.9%22.4%20.8%
7.7%29.3%28.4%27.3%26.2%24.9%
8.7%32.1%31.3%30.4%29.5%28.4%
Color≤ historical CAGRModerate premiumHigh premium (≥ 15pp above hist)Your inputs

Historical multiples

Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.

P/EToday22.8
5Y low21.6
Median22.8
5Y high34.2
P/SToday4.8
5Y low4.2
Median4.9
5Y high5.5
EV/EBITDAToday13.1· at low
5Y low13.1
Median14.0
5Y high14.2

PEG

0.72

Low vs growth

Net debt

$45.5B

Total debt − cash

Beta

0.40

Vs market benchmark

Frequently asked questions