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Fair Value for Amphenol (APH)

See growth priced into Amphenol (APH): reverse DCF, implied rate vs history and analysts, FCF view. Free intrinsic value calculator for education.

Fair value (multi-method)

Four independent methods triangulate what APH is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.

Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)

$258.26

Margin of safety
+39.01% vs current price $157.51

Method range

$14.02 $258.26

median $166.92

Methods disagree

Valuation methods

Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.

  • Forward DCF$258.26
  • Exit multiple$143.50
  • Analyst target$190.33
  • Graham number$14.02

Stock price

$157.51

FCF / share (TTM)

$0.68

3Y FCF CAGR

38.1%

Fair value @ hist. growth

$101.27

This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.

Implied FCF growth

44.8%

per year over your projection horizon

Premium vs DCF

Margin of safety -55.5% vs hist-growth DCF

Historical 3Y CAGR

38.1%

Your model implies

44.8%

Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.

Model inputs

Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.

Discount rate (cost of equity proxy)10.9%
Terminal growth2.50%
Projection years10 yr
FCF growth per year (supplemental projection)38%

Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 38% annual growth.

Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions

Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.

Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%
8.9%40.8%40.0%39.0%38.0%36.9%
9.9%43.6%42.8%42.0%41.1%40.2%
10.9%46.2%45.5%44.8%44.0%43.2%
11.9%48.7%48.1%47.4%46.7%46.0%
12.9%51.1%50.5%49.9%49.3%48.6%
Color≤ historical CAGRModerate premiumHigh premium (≥ 15pp above hist)Your inputs

Historical multiples

Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.

P/EToday38.5· at high
5Y low23.8
Median32.9
5Y high38.5
P/SToday7.1· at high
5Y low3.6
Median4.8
5Y high7.1
EV/EBITDAToday24.5· at high
5Y low16.4
Median22.5
5Y high24.5

Net debt

$4.37B

Total debt − cash

Beta

1.24

Vs market benchmark

Frequently asked questions