Ares Management (ARES) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.26), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, ARES sits roughly in line with the Financial Services sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.26in line with sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.26 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.53% | in line with sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 65% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.72% | +0.66pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 17 | — |
Next ex-dividend
The company has not declared a dividend, and we don't have enough recent history to extrapolate a reliable estimate.
ARES Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Ares Management (ARES). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $1.35 | 0.76% | $100.51 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.76% | +6.93% | |
| Q4 | $1.12 | -0.67% | $173.61 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.96% | -1.98% | |
| Q3 | $1.12 | -0.40% | $179.92 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.68% | +1.31% | |
| Q2 | $1.12 | 0.46% | $166.56 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.45% | +2.63% | |
| Q1 | $1.12 | -1.01% | $144.36 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.27% | +7.28% | |
| Q4 | $0.93 | -1.42% | $183.70 | 13 | no | yes | -8.00% | -0.93% | |
| Q3 | $0.93 | -0.50% | $147.40 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.61% | +6.64% | |
| Q2 | $0.93 | -1.68% | $133.76 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.30% | +0.76% | |
| Q1 | $0.93 | -0.62% | $134.72 | 6 | no | yes | -3.99% | +2.07% | |
| Q4 | $0.77 | 0.55% | $113.95 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.66% | +1.76% | |
| Q3 | $0.77 | -0.22% | $105.37 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.39% | +0.13% | |
| Q2 | $0.77 | -1.39% | $94.17 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.12% | -3.18% | |
| Q1 | $0.77 | -2.06% | $75.36 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.84% | +7.70% | |
| Q4 | $0.61 | -2.95% | $72.46 | 17 | no | yes | -8.86% | -6.32% | |
| Q3 | $0.61 | -0.73% | $76.80 | 1 | yes | yes | -17.40% | -11.73% | |
| Q2 | $0.61 | 0.32% | $59.09 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.05% | -1.46% | |
| Q1 | $0.61 | 0.70% | $71.26 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.70% | +11.25% | |
| Q4 | $0.47 | 1.27% | $77.72 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.29% | +5.29% | |
| Q3 | $0.47 | -0.51% | $78.22 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.48% | -1.55% | |
| Q2 | $0.47 | -1.28% | $58.64 | 3 | yes | yes | -3.36% | +1.14% |
- +6.93%
- -1.98%
- +1.31%
- +2.63%
- +7.28%
- -0.93%
- +6.64%
- +0.76%
- +2.07%
- +1.76%
- +0.13%
- -3.18%
- +7.70%
- -6.32%
- -11.73%
- -1.46%
- +11.25%
- +5.29%
- -1.55%
- +1.14%
ARES Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 14 | 70% | |
| 2–3 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
ARES Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with ARES's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $270.00
- After-tax dividend
- $175.50
- Slippage round-trip
- -$20.10
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$155.40
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.77%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~39.0%
ARES Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical ARES ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · ARES (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.80% | |
| +0.60% | |
| +0.60% | |
| +0.86% | |
| +1.03% | |
| +0.79% | |
| -6.32% | |
| +1.02% | |
| +0.82% | |
| +0.73% | |
| +0.68% | |
| +2.07% | |
| +0.70% | |
| +0.63% | |
| -0.93% | |
| +0.78% | |
| +0.67% | |
| +0.62% | |
| +0.65% | |
| +1.34% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.