Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what ARES is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$77.66
Method range
$16.04 – $356.87
median $124.39
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $77.66 | -38.20% |
| Exit multiple | $356.87 | +184.02% |
| Analyst target | $171.13 | +36.20% |
| Graham number | $16.04 | -87.23% |
- Forward DCF$77.66
- Exit multiple$356.87
- Analyst target$171.13
- Graham number$16.04
Stock price
$125.65
FCF / share (TTM)
$1.74
3Y FCF CAGR
—
Fair value @ hist. growth
$27.04
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
30.1%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -364.8% vs hist-growth DCF
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 8% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.1% | 26.9% | 26.2% | 25.6% | 24.9% | 24.1% |
| 11.1% | 29.1% | 28.5% | 27.9% | 27.3% | 26.6% |
| 12.1% | 31.2% | 30.7% | 30.1% | 29.6% | 29.0% |
| 13.1% | 33.2% | 32.7% | 32.3% | 31.7% | 31.2% |
| 14.1% | 35.2% | 34.7% | 34.3% | 33.8% | 33.3% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.14
Low vs growth
Net debt
$13.4B
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.52
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Ares Management (ARES) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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