Ticker League

Fair Value for Ares Management (ARES)

See growth priced into Ares Management (ARES): reverse DCF, implied rate vs history and analysts, FCF view. Free intrinsic value calculator for education.

Fair value (multi-method)

Four independent methods triangulate what ARES is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.

Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)

$77.66

Above fair value
-61.80% vs current price $125.65

Method range

$16.04 $356.87

median $124.39

Methods disagree

Valuation methods

Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.

  • Forward DCF$77.66
  • Exit multiple$356.87
  • Analyst target$171.13
  • Graham number$16.04

Stock price

$125.65

FCF / share (TTM)

$1.74

3Y FCF CAGR

Fair value @ hist. growth

$27.04

This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.

Implied FCF growth

30.1%

per year over your projection horizon

Premium vs DCF

Margin of safety -364.8% vs hist-growth DCF

Model inputs

Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.

Discount rate (cost of equity proxy)12.1%
Terminal growth2.50%
Projection years10 yr
FCF growth per year (supplemental projection)8%

Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 8% annual growth.

Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions

Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.

Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%
10.1%26.9%26.2%25.6%24.9%24.1%
11.1%29.1%28.5%27.9%27.3%26.6%
12.1%31.2%30.7%30.1%29.6%29.0%
13.1%33.2%32.7%32.3%31.7%31.2%
14.1%35.2%34.7%34.3%33.8%33.3%
Color≤ historical CAGRModerate premiumHigh premium (≥ 15pp above hist)Your inputs

Historical multiples

Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.

P/EToday66.6
5Y low32.5
Median66.6
5Y high75.6
P/SToday5.4
5Y low3.2
Median5.4
5Y high9.0
EV/EBITDAToday28.7· at high
5Y low19.4
Median22.6
5Y high28.7

PEG

0.14

Low vs growth

Net debt

$13.4B

Total debt − cash

Beta

1.52

Vs market benchmark

Frequently asked questions