Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what ARES is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$70.15
Method range
$16.04 – $414.93
median $115.26
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $70.15 | -41.33% |
| Exit multiple | $414.93 | +247.02% |
| Analyst target | $160.38 | +34.13% |
| Graham number | $16.04 | -86.58% |
- Forward DCF$70.15
- Exit multiple$414.93
- Analyst target$160.38
- Graham number$16.04
Stock price
$119.57
FCF / share (TTM)
$1.74
3Y FCF CAGR
—
Fair value @ hist. growth
$26.36
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
29.9%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -353.5% vs hist-growth DCF
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 8% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.4% | 26.7% | 26.1% | 25.4% | 24.7% | 24.0% |
| 11.4% | 28.8% | 28.3% | 27.7% | 27.1% | 26.5% |
| 12.4% | 30.9% | 30.4% | 29.9% | 29.3% | 28.8% |
| 13.4% | 32.9% | 32.4% | 32.0% | 31.5% | 30.9% |
| 14.4% | 34.8% | 34.4% | 34.0% | 33.5% | 33.0% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.17
Low vs growth
Net debt
$13.4B
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.54
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Ares Management (ARES) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.