Ticker League

Fair Value for Ares Management (ARES)

See growth priced into Ares Management (ARES): reverse DCF, implied rate vs history and analysts, FCF view. Free intrinsic value calculator for education.

Fair value (multi-method)

Four independent methods triangulate what ARES is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.

Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)

$70.15

Above fair value
-70.46% vs current price $119.57

Method range

$16.04 $414.93

median $115.26

Methods disagree

Valuation methods

Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.

  • Forward DCF$70.15
  • Exit multiple$414.93
  • Analyst target$160.38
  • Graham number$16.04

Stock price

$119.57

FCF / share (TTM)

$1.74

3Y FCF CAGR

Fair value @ hist. growth

$26.36

This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.

Implied FCF growth

29.9%

per year over your projection horizon

Premium vs DCF

Margin of safety -353.5% vs hist-growth DCF

Model inputs

Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.

Discount rate (cost of equity proxy)12.3%
Terminal growth2.50%
Projection years10 yr
FCF growth per year (supplemental projection)8%

Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 8% annual growth.

Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions

Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.

Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%
10.4%26.7%26.1%25.4%24.7%24.0%
11.4%28.8%28.3%27.7%27.1%26.5%
12.4%30.9%30.4%29.9%29.3%28.8%
13.4%32.9%32.4%32.0%31.5%30.9%
14.4%34.8%34.4%34.0%33.5%33.0%
Color≤ historical CAGRModerate premiumHigh premium (≥ 15pp above hist)Your inputs

Historical multiples

Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.

P/EToday82.5
5Y low36.1
Median78.7
5Y high85.5
P/SToday5.4
5Y low3.2
Median5.4
5Y high9.0
EV/EBITDAToday28.7· at high
5Y low19.4
Median22.6
5Y high28.7

PEG

0.17

Low vs growth

Net debt

$13.4B

Total debt − cash

Beta

1.54

Vs market benchmark

Frequently asked questions