Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what ARM is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$17.98
Method range
$7.19 – $268.29
median $116.74
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $17.98 | -94.76% |
| Exit multiple | $268.29 | -21.77% |
| Analyst target | $215.50 | -37.16% |
| Graham number | $7.19 | -97.90% |
- Forward DCF$17.98
- Exit multiple$268.29
- Analyst target$215.50
- Graham number$7.19
Stock price
$342.93
FCF / share (TTM)
$0.17
3Y FCF CAGR
25.2%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$6.23
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
93.7%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -5408.4% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
25.2%
Your model implies
93.7%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 25% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13.0% | 89.2% | 88.5% | 87.7% | 86.9% | 86.0% |
| 14.0% | 92.2% | 91.5% | 90.8% | 90.0% | 89.2% |
| 15.0% | 95.1% | 94.4% | 93.7% | 93.0% | 92.3% |
| 15.0% | 95.1% | 94.4% | 93.7% | 93.0% | 92.3% |
| 15.0% | 95.1% | 94.4% | 93.7% | 93.0% | 92.3% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
3.37
Demanding vs growth
Net cash
$2.3B
Total debt − cash
Beta
3.79
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Arm (ARM) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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