ASH dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 100% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Ashland (ASH) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.21), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, ASH sits roughly in line with the Basic Materials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 31, 2026 (±2 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
Touch rate (30d)
100%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.21
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.21 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.27% | +0.10pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 50% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -5.27% | -0.33pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 14 | — |
Estimated from historical pattern ±2 days.
Dividend
$0.42
Per-event yield
0.73%
Annualized yield
2.87%
Previously paid
Jun 1, 2026 ($0.42)
Last record date
Jun 1, 2026
Last payment date
Jun 15, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Ashland (ASH). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.42 | -1.93% | $57.90 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.04% | -0.03% | |
| Q1 | $0.42 | -1.65% | $62.27 | 1 | yes | yes | -18.63% | -10.29% | |
| Q4 | $0.42 | 2.36% | $52.90 | 1 | yes | yes | 2.17% | +9.48% | |
| Q3 | $0.42 | -0.48% | $56.60 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.26% | -2.84% | |
| Q2 | $0.42 | -1.37% | $50.92 | 7 | no | yes | -6.09% | -0.74% | |
| Q1 | $0.41 | -0.60% | $61.50 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.10% | -4.43% | |
| Q4 | $0.41 | -0.47% | $78.31 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.50% | -3.08% | |
| Q3 | $0.41 | -0.04% | $89.75 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.92% | -4.44% | |
| Q2 | $0.41 | -0.25% | $99.63 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.39% | +0.91% | |
| Q1 | $0.39 | 0.11% | $93.83 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.81% | +2.78% | |
| Q4 | $0.39 | -0.19% | $78.30 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.69% | +7.15% | |
| Q3 | $0.39 | 0.05% | $87.60 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.34% | -5.02% | |
| Q2 | $0.39 | -0.83% | $86.55 | 3 | yes | yes | -3.17% | +2.56% | |
| Q1 | $0.34 | -0.53% | $102.05 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.81% | -0.92% | |
| Q4 | $0.34 | -0.39% | $110.67 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.70% | +1.15% | |
| Q3 | $0.34 | -0.04% | $102.39 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.58% | +0.42% | |
| Q2 | $0.34 | -1.27% | $108.84 | 5 | yes | yes | -9.80% | +1.84% | |
| Q1 | $0.30 | -1.52% | $94.21 | 14 | no | yes | -11.59% | -9.40% | |
| Q4 | $0.30 | -0.79% | $103.33 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.13% | +2.57% | |
| Q3 | $0.30 | 4.49% | $87.26 | 1 | yes | yes | 1.60% | +7.56% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 15 | 75% | |
| 2–3 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
Pre-filled with ASH's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical ASH ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
-0.08%
Win rate (20 trades)
90%
Cumulative P&L
-1.51%
Buy & hold (same sample)
-24.95%
Best event
+0.78%
Worst event
-9.40%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · ASH (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.34% | |
| +0.29% | |
| -9.40% | |
| +0.31% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.30% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.44% | |
| +0.44% | |
| +0.49% | |
| +0.41% | |
| +0.41% | |
| +0.45% | |
| +0.52% | |
| +0.66% | |
| -0.74% | |
| +0.73% | |
| +0.78% | |
| +0.67% | |
| +0.73% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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