Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what ASH is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
—
Method range
$17.90 – $82.57
median $67.38
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | — | — |
| Exit multiple | $82.57 | +46.92% |
| Analyst target | $67.38 | +19.89% |
| Graham number | $17.90 | -68.15% |
- Forward DCF—
- Exit multiple$82.57
- Analyst target$67.38
- Graham number$17.90
Stock price
$56.20
FCF / share (TTM)
$0.52
3Y FCF CAGR
-9.8%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$4.71
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
21.1%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -1092.0% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
-9.8%
Your model implies
21.1%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at -10% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | 17.3% | 15.7% | 13.7% | 11.4% | 8.4% |
| 5.7% | 20.0% | 18.7% | 17.1% | 15.3% | 13.2% |
| 6.7% | 23.4% | 22.3% | 21.1% | 19.7% | 18.1% |
| 7.7% | 26.4% | 25.4% | 24.4% | 23.3% | 22.1% |
| 8.7% | 29.1% | 28.3% | 27.4% | 26.5% | 25.5% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$1.4B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.43
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Ashland (ASH) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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