American Water Works Company (AWK) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.23), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, AWK sits roughly in line with the Utilities sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 11, 2026 (±2 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.23-0.23 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.23 | -0.23 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.42% | +0.26pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 55% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -2.69% | +1.15pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 12 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±2 days.
| Dividend | $0.90 |
| Per-event yield | 0.73% |
| Annualized yield | 2.65% |
| Previously paid | Feb 10, 2026 ($0.83) |
| Last record date | Feb 10, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 3, 2026 |
AWK Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for American Water Works Company (AWK). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.83 | -0.30% | $122.95 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.77% | +7.35% | |
| Q4 | $0.83 | -0.89% | $129.77 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.97% | -0.63% | |
| Q3 | $0.83 | -0.89% | $145.55 | 7 | no | yes | -3.35% | +0.33% | |
| Q2 | $0.83 | -0.82% | $138.64 | 3 | yes | yes | -5.04% | +4.33% | |
| Q1 | $0.77 | -0.94% | $123.98 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.08% | +1.97% | |
| Q4 | $0.77 | -0.67% | $134.77 | 5 | yes | yes | -2.24% | +3.11% | |
| Q3 | $0.77 | -0.06% | $142.56 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.57% | -0.37% | |
| Q2 | $0.77 | -0.37% | $135.50 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.84% | -0.86% | |
| Q1 | $0.71 | -0.13% | $122.52 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.89% | -1.09% | |
| Q4 | $0.71 | -0.87% | $123.50 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.94% | +6.38% | |
| Q3 | $0.71 | -0.30% | $141.97 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.80% | +0.62% | |
| Q2 | $0.71 | -0.50% | $148.43 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.35% | -0.11% | |
| Q1 | $0.66 | -1.00% | $156.61 | >30 | no | no | -7.96% | -2.71% | |
| Q4 | $0.66 | -0.35% | $139.04 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.47% | +4.58% | |
| Q3 | $0.66 | 0.40% | $155.64 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.02% | +2.73% | |
| Q2 | $0.66 | -1.16% | $149.01 | 12 | no | yes | -4.46% | -1.60% | |
| Q1 | $0.60 | 0.13% | $155.50 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.27% | -4.42% | |
| Q4 | $0.60 | 0.30% | $169.01 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.57% | +1.38% | |
| Q3 | $0.60 | 0.37% | $177.45 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.65% | +2.62% | |
| Q2 | $0.60 | -0.30% | $152.77 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.37% | -0.86% |
- +7.35%
- -0.63%
- +0.33%
- +4.33%
- +1.97%
- +3.11%
- -0.37%
- -0.86%
- -1.09%
- +6.38%
- +0.62%
- -0.11%
- -2.71%
- +4.58%
- +2.73%
- -1.60%
- -4.42%
- +1.38%
- +2.62%
- -0.86%
AWK Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 12 | 60% | |
| 2–3 days | 4 | 20% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
AWK Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with AWK's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $180.00
- After-tax dividend
- $117.00
- Slippage round-trip
- -$24.59
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$92.41
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.38%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~18.9%
AWK Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical AWK ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · AWK (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.39% | |
| +0.34% | |
| +0.36% | |
| +0.39% | |
| -1.60% | |
| +0.42% | |
| +0.47% | |
| -2.71% | |
| +0.48% | |
| +0.50% | |
| +0.57% | |
| +0.58% | |
| +0.56% | |
| +0.54% | |
| +0.57% | |
| +0.62% | |
| +0.60% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.64% | |
| +0.67% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.