Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what AWK is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$169.64
Method range
$35.78 – $169.64
median $142.06
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $169.64 | +36.29% |
| Exit multiple | $152.46 | +22.49% |
| Analyst target | $131.67 | +5.78% |
| Graham number | $35.78 | -71.26% |
- Forward DCF$169.64
- Exit multiple$152.46
- Analyst target$131.67
- Graham number$35.78
Stock price
$124.47
EPS (TTM)
$5.65
5Y EPS CAGR
7.9%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$169.64
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied EPS growth
4.0%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety 26.6% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 5Y CAGR
7.9%
Your model implies
4.0%
Next-year analyst consensus
7.7%
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.7% | 0.4% | -0.6% | -1.8% | -3.2% | -4.9% |
| 6.7% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.3% | -1.0% |
| 7.7% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 2.2% |
| 8.7% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.8% |
| 9.7% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 7.2% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$15.8B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.63
Vs market benchmark
Annual diluted EPS
Per-share earnings by fiscal year — last 5 years anchor the CAGR reference above.
Frequently asked questions
American Water Works Company (AWK) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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