AXP dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 100% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
American Express (AXP) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.14), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, AXP sits roughly in line with the Financial Services sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Oct 1, 2026 (±4 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
Touch rate (30d)
100%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.14
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.14 | -0.16 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.72% | -0.13pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 65% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -4.17% | +0.24pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 4 | — |
Estimated from historical pattern ±4 days.
Dividend
$0.95
Per-event yield
0.27%
Annualized yield
1.01%
Previously paid
Jul 2, 2026 ($0.95)
Last record date
Jul 2, 2026
Last payment date
Aug 10, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for American Express (AXP). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 | $0.95 | 0.42% | $348.00 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.15% | +1.01% | |
| Q2 | $0.95 | -2.01% | $301.45 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.94% | +4.31% | |
| Q1 | $0.82 | -0.12% | $369.95 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.20% | +1.75% | |
| Q4 | $0.82 | 0.23% | $324.44 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.62% | +7.09% | |
| Q3 | $0.82 | -0.09% | $325.61 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.84% | -1.63% | |
| Q2 | $0.82 | -3.99% | $247.82 | 4 | yes | yes | -11.05% | +1.67% | |
| Q1 | $0.70 | 0.75% | $298.43 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.44% | -0.24% | |
| Q4 | $0.70 | 1.36% | $268.59 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.90% | +3.08% | |
| Q3 | $0.70 | 0.00% | $235.71 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.91% | +1.54% | |
| Q2 | $0.70 | 1.11% | $226.63 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.35% | -3.41% | |
| Q1 | $0.60 | -0.17% | $186.32 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.57% | -0.37% | |
| Q4 | $0.60 | -0.72% | $146.63 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.27% | +3.58% | |
| Q3 | $0.60 | -2.18% | $175.57 | 4 | yes | yes | -4.18% | -0.42% | |
| Q2 | $0.60 | -1.23% | $162.56 | 4 | yes | yes | -2.93% | +0.21% | |
| Q1 | $0.52 | -2.25% | $150.54 | 3 | yes | yes | -4.21% | +3.25% | |
| Q4 | $0.52 | -3.94% | $136.74 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.45% | +4.53% | |
| Q2 | $0.52 | -1.99% | $139.47 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.84% | +2.01% | |
| Q2 | $0.52 | -1.19% | $183.71 | 2 | yes | yes | -5.29% | -1.11% | |
| Q1 | $0.43 | 0.45% | $171.76 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.16% | +1.14% | |
| Q4 | $0.43 | 1.21% | $173.40 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.64% | -0.84% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 15 | 75% | |
| 2–3 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 4–5 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
Pre-filled with AXP's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical AXP ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
+0.30%
Win rate (20 trades)
100%
Cumulative P&L
+6.07%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+110.66%
Best event
+0.41%
Worst event
+0.22%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · AXP (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.25% | |
| +0.25% | |
| +0.28% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.38% | |
| +0.35% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.34% | |
| +0.41% | |
| +0.32% | |
| +0.31% | |
| +0.30% | |
| +0.26% | |
| +0.23% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.25% | |
| +0.25% | |
| +0.22% | |
| +0.32% | |
| +0.27% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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