Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what AXP is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$1,954.63
Method range
$69.49 – $1,954.63
median $325.42
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $1,954.63 | +460.48% |
| Exit multiple | $268.91 | -22.89% |
| Analyst target | $381.92 | +9.51% |
| Graham number | $69.49 | -80.07% |
- Forward DCF$1,954.63
- Exit multiple$268.91
- Analyst target$381.92
- Graham number$69.49
Stock price
$348.74
FCF / share (TTM)
$3.87
3Y FCF CAGR
8.5%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$83.46
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
28.2%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -317.8% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
8.5%
Your model implies
28.2%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 9% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.9% | 24.5% | 23.6% | 22.7% | 21.6% | 20.5% |
| 8.9% | 27.1% | 26.3% | 25.5% | 24.6% | 23.7% |
| 9.9% | 29.5% | 28.9% | 28.2% | 27.4% | 26.6% |
| 10.9% | 31.8% | 31.2% | 30.6% | 29.9% | 29.2% |
| 11.9% | 34.0% | 33.5% | 32.9% | 32.3% | 31.7% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.83
Low vs growth
Net debt
$10.1B
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.05
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
American Express (AXP) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
- Buybacks3.14% TTM
- Dividend Profile1.02% yield
- Dividend Calculator
- Dividend Forecast
- Dividend Capture
- Stock Split History6 splits
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.