Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what AXP is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$1,974.49
Method range
$69.49 – $1,974.49
median $319.82
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $1,974.49 | +535.58% |
| Exit multiple | $264.91 | -14.73% |
| Analyst target | $374.73 | +20.62% |
| Graham number | $69.49 | -77.63% |
- Forward DCF$1,974.49
- Exit multiple$264.91
- Analyst target$374.73
- Graham number$69.49
Stock price
$310.66
FCF / share (TTM)
$3.87
3Y FCF CAGR
8.5%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$84.16
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
26.4%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -269.2% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
8.5%
Your model implies
26.4%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 9% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.8% | 22.7% | 21.9% | 20.9% | 19.9% | 18.8% |
| 8.8% | 25.3% | 24.6% | 23.8% | 22.9% | 22.0% |
| 9.8% | 27.7% | 27.1% | 26.4% | 25.6% | 24.8% |
| 10.8% | 30.0% | 29.4% | 28.8% | 28.1% | 27.4% |
| 11.8% | 32.2% | 31.7% | 31.1% | 30.5% | 29.9% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.82
Low vs growth
Net debt
$10.1B
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.06
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
American Express (AXP) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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