Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what BABA is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$560.64
Method range
$6.09 – $769.64
median $372.82
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $560.64 | +380.99% |
| Exit multiple | $769.64 | +560.29% |
| Analyst target | $185.00 | +58.72% |
| Graham number | $6.09 | -94.78% |
- Forward DCF$560.64
- Exit multiple$769.64
- Analyst target$185.00
- Graham number$6.09
Stock price
$116.56
EPS (TTM)
$43.76
5Y EPS CAGR
-4.3%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$560.64
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied EPS growth
-26.4%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety 79.2% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 5Y CAGR
-4.3%
Your model implies
-26.4%
Next-year analyst consensus
-0.7%
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.2% | -28.5% | -29.1% | -29.7% | -30.6% | -31.7% |
| 6.2% | -27.0% | -27.4% | -27.9% | -28.4% | -29.1% |
| 7.2% | -25.7% | -26.0% | -26.4% | -26.8% | -27.2% |
| 8.2% | -24.5% | -24.8% | -25.0% | -25.4% | -25.7% |
| 9.2% | -23.4% | -23.6% | -23.9% | -24.1% | -24.4% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.34
Low vs growth
Net debt
$86.1B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.50
Vs market benchmark
Annual diluted EPS
Per-share earnings by fiscal year — last 5 years anchor the CAGR reference above.
Frequently asked questions
Alibaba (BABA) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.