Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what BABA is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$574.95
Method range
$6.09 – $815.31
median $382.06
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $574.95 | +374.93% |
| Exit multiple | $815.31 | +573.47% |
| Analyst target | $189.17 | +56.26% |
| Graham number | $6.09 | -94.97% |
- Forward DCF$574.95
- Exit multiple$815.31
- Analyst target$189.17
- Graham number$6.09
Stock price
$121.06
EPS (TTM)
$43.76
5Y EPS CAGR
-4.3%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$574.95
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied EPS growth
-25.9%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety 78.9% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 5Y CAGR
-4.3%
Your model implies
-25.9%
Next-year analyst consensus
2.8%
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | -28.1% | -28.7% | -29.5% | -30.4% | -31.7% |
| 6.0% | -26.6% | -27.0% | -27.5% | -28.1% | -28.8% |
| 7.0% | -25.2% | -25.5% | -25.9% | -26.3% | -26.8% |
| 8.0% | -24.0% | -24.3% | -24.5% | -24.9% | -25.3% |
| 9.0% | -22.9% | -23.1% | -23.3% | -23.6% | -23.9% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.34
Low vs growth
Net debt
$86.1B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.49
Vs market benchmark
Annual diluted EPS
Per-share earnings by fiscal year — last 5 years anchor the CAGR reference above.
Frequently asked questions
Alibaba (BABA) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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