Bunge Global S.A. (BG) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.25), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, BG sits roughly in line with the Consumer Defensive sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is Aug 18, 2026, with an expected dividend of $0.72.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.25-0.13 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.25 | -0.13 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.66% | in line with sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 55% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.56% | +0.55pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 20 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Confirmed by company declaration.
| Dividend | $0.72 |
| Per-event yield | 0.59% |
| Annualized yield | 2.52% |
| Previously paid | Feb 17, 2026 ($0.70) |
| Last record date | Feb 17, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 3, 2026 |
BG Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Bunge Global S.A. (BG). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.70 | -0.43% | $122.53 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.86% | +0.55% | |
| Q4 | $0.70 | -0.96% | $96.01 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.12% | -1.87% | |
| Q3 | $0.70 | -0.26% | $80.57 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.73% | +6.28% | |
| Q2 | $0.70 | -0.66% | $81.54 | 19 | no | yes | -6.06% | -1.96% | |
| Q1 | $0.68 | -1.12% | $70.50 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.74% | +6.31% | |
| Q4 | $0.68 | 0.54% | $90.60 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.08% | -1.63% | |
| Q3 | $0.68 | -0.56% | $96.51 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.44% | +4.97% | |
| Q2 | $0.68 | -0.21% | $104.23 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.09% | +0.21% | |
| Q1 | $0.66 | -0.90% | $89.52 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.31% | +5.35% | |
| Q4 | $0.66 | -0.74% | $106.79 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.52% | +1.76% | |
| Q3 | $0.66 | 0.01% | $111.26 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.21% | +1.34% | |
| Q2 | $0.63 | -0.91% | $89.69 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.03% | +5.07% | |
| Q1 | $0.63 | -0.84% | $99.96 | 19 | no | yes | -5.08% | -0.92% | |
| Q4 | $0.63 | -1.64% | $99.41 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.27% | +3.01% | |
| Q3 | $0.63 | -0.13% | $100.10 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.19% | +3.46% | |
| Q2 | $0.53 | -1.09% | $116.49 | 6 | no | yes | -8.08% | -0.20% | |
| Q1 | $0.53 | -0.34% | $100.83 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.91% | -0.62% | |
| Q4 | $0.53 | -1.01% | $95.73 | 1 | yes | yes | -11.78% | -2.47% | |
| Q3 | $0.53 | -1.23% | $78.81 | 20 | no | yes | -7.18% | -2.43% | |
| Q2 | $0.50 | 0.08% | $89.54 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.74% | -2.26% |
- +0.55%
- -1.87%
- +6.28%
- -1.96%
- +6.31%
- -1.63%
- +4.97%
- +0.21%
- +5.35%
- +1.76%
- +1.34%
- +5.07%
- -0.92%
- +3.01%
- +3.46%
- -0.20%
- -0.62%
- -2.47%
- -2.43%
- -2.26%
BG Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 11 | 55% | |
| 2–3 days | 5 | 25% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
BG Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with BG's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $144.00
- After-tax dividend
- $93.60
- Slippage round-trip
- -$24.51
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$69.09
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.28%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~14.2%
BG Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical BG ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · BG (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.56% | |
| -2.43% | |
| +0.55% | |
| +0.52% | |
| -0.20% | |
| +0.62% | |
| +0.63% | |
| -0.92% | |
| +0.70% | |
| +0.60% | |
| +0.62% | |
| +0.74% | |
| +0.65% | |
| +0.70% | |
| +0.75% | |
| +0.96% | |
| -1.96% | |
| +0.87% | |
| +0.73% | |
| +0.57% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.