Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what CIEN is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$9.86
Method range
$9.86 – $493.42
median $146.15
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $9.86 | -97.98% |
| Exit multiple | $265.74 | -45.57% |
| Analyst target | $493.42 | +1.07% |
| Graham number | $26.55 | -94.56% |
- Forward DCF$9.86
- Exit multiple$265.74
- Analyst target$493.42
- Graham number$26.55
Stock price
$488.21
FCF / share (TTM)
$1.54
3Y FCF CAGR
11.6%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$36.74
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
49.2%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -1228.7% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
11.6%
Your model implies
49.2%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 12% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.8% | 45.1% | 44.2% | 43.2% | 42.1% | 41.0% |
| 9.8% | 48.0% | 47.2% | 46.3% | 45.4% | 44.4% |
| 10.8% | 50.7% | 50.0% | 49.2% | 48.4% | 47.6% |
| 11.8% | 53.3% | 52.7% | 52.0% | 51.3% | 50.5% |
| 12.8% | 55.8% | 55.2% | 54.6% | 53.9% | 53.2% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
1.92
Fair vs growth
Net debt
$490M
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.24
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Ciena (CIEN) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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