Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what CIEN is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$9.70
Method range
$9.70 – $493.42
median $153.82
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $9.70 | -97.56% |
| Exit multiple | $281.09 | -29.23% |
| Analyst target | $493.42 | +24.24% |
| Graham number | $26.55 | -93.32% |
- Forward DCF$9.70
- Exit multiple$281.09
- Analyst target$493.42
- Graham number$26.55
Stock price
$397.16
FCF / share (TTM)
$1.54
3Y FCF CAGR
11.6%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$35.39
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
46.8%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -1,022.1% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
11.6%
Your model implies
46.8%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 12% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.0% | 42.8% | 41.9% | 41.0% | 40.0% | 38.9% |
| 10.0% | 45.5% | 44.8% | 44.0% | 43.1% | 42.2% |
| 11.0% | 48.2% | 47.5% | 46.8% | 46.0% | 45.2% |
| 12.0% | 50.7% | 50.0% | 49.4% | 48.7% | 48.0% |
| 13.0% | 53.1% | 52.5% | 51.9% | 51.3% | 50.6% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
1.92
Fair vs growth
Net debt
$490M
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.27
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Ciena (CIEN) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.