Cummins (CMI) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 84% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.25), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, CMI sits noticeably below the Industrials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 21, 2026 (±0 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 84%-11pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.25+0.07 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 84% | -11pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.25 | +0.07 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.83% | -0.47pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 60% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.95% | in line with sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 3 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±0 days.
| Dividend | $2.00 |
| Per-event yield | 0.34% |
| Annualized yield | 1.25% |
| Previously paid | Feb 20, 2026 ($2.00) |
| Last record date | Feb 20, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 5, 2026 |
CMI Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Cummins (CMI). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $2.00 | -0.96% | $596.91 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.69% | -1.85% | |
| Q4 | $2.00 | -0.35% | $465.19 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.76% | +7.09% | |
| Q3 | $2.00 | 0.27% | $394.20 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.19% | +1.58% | |
| Q2 | $1.82 | -2.13% | $321.79 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.34% | -0.85% | |
| Q1 | $1.82 | -0.28% | $384.39 | >30 | no | no | -11.41% | -3.74% | |
| Q4 | $1.82 | -0.53% | $368.86 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.91% | +2.78% | |
| Q3 | $1.82 | -0.18% | $305.83 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.56% | +2.89% | |
| Q2 | $1.68 | -0.31% | $287.01 | >30 | no | no | -5.38% | -1.25% | |
| Q1 | $1.68 | -0.26% | $263.19 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.57% | +2.70% | |
| Q4 | $1.68 | -1.07% | $223.80 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.69% | +0.91% | |
| Q3 | $1.68 | -1.45% | $234.28 | 3 | yes | yes | -4.24% | -1.09% | |
| Q2 | $1.57 | -1.24% | $215.71 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.81% | -1.47% | |
| Q1 | $1.57 | -0.03% | $250.04 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.66% | +1.76% | |
| Q4 | $1.57 | -1.99% | $249.97 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.34% | +0.81% | |
| Q3 | $1.57 | -0.30% | $230.27 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.10% | +0.12% | |
| Q2 | $1.45 | -2.02% | $204.16 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.68% | +0.41% | |
| Q1 | $1.45 | -1.27% | $223.31 | 1 | yes | yes | -14.01% | -8.07% | |
| Q4 | $1.45 | -0.36% | $231.89 | >30 | no | no | -9.83% | -4.64% | |
| Q3 | $1.45 | -1.26% | $233.58 | 3 | yes | yes | -1.65% | +2.08% | |
| Q2 | $1.35 | -0.10% | $259.24 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.46% | +0.51% |
- -1.85%
- +7.09%
- +1.58%
- -0.85%
- -3.74%
- +2.78%
- +2.89%
- -1.25%
- +2.70%
- +0.91%
- -1.09%
- -1.47%
- +1.76%
- +0.81%
- +0.12%
- +0.41%
- -8.07%
- -4.64%
- +2.08%
- +0.51%
CMI Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 13 | 65% | |
| 2–3 days | 4 | 20% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 3 | 15% |
CMI Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with CMI's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $400.00
- After-tax dividend
- $260.00
- Slippage round-trip
- -$119.38
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$140.62
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.12%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~5.9%
CMI Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical CMI ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · CMI (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.52% | |
| +0.62% | |
| -4.64% | |
| +0.65% | |
| +0.71% | |
| +0.68% | |
| +0.63% | |
| +0.63% | |
| +0.73% | |
| +0.72% | |
| +0.75% | |
| +0.64% | |
| -1.25% | |
| +0.60% | |
| +0.49% | |
| -3.74% | |
| +0.57% | |
| +0.51% | |
| +0.43% | |
| +0.34% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.