Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what CMI is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$448.71
Method range
$97.48 – $702.00
median $432.94
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $448.71 | -31.10% |
| Exit multiple | $417.17 | -35.94% |
| Analyst target | $702.00 | +7.80% |
| Graham number | $97.48 | -85.03% |
- Forward DCF$448.71
- Exit multiple$417.17
- Analyst target$702.00
- Graham number$97.48
Stock price
$651.22
FCF / share (TTM)
$0.87
3Y FCF CAGR
14.3%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$25.16
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
63.3%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -2488.3% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
14.3%
Your model implies
63.3%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 14% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.8% | 58.7% | 57.7% | 56.6% | 55.4% | 54.1% |
| 9.8% | 61.9% | 61.0% | 60.1% | 59.0% | 57.9% |
| 10.8% | 65.0% | 64.1% | 63.3% | 62.4% | 61.4% |
| 11.8% | 67.8% | 67.1% | 66.3% | 65.5% | 64.6% |
| 12.8% | 70.6% | 69.9% | 69.2% | 68.5% | 67.7% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
2.77
Demanding vs growth
Net debt
$5.3B
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.24
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Cummins (CMI) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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