CSX dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 95% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
CSX (CSX) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.18), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, CSX sits roughly in line with the Industrials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is Aug 31, 2026, with an expected dividend of $0.14.
Touch rate (30d)
95%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.18
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.18 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | 0.01% | +0.35pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 45% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.24% | +0.78pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 8 | — |
Confirmed by company declaration.
Dividend
$0.14
Per-event yield
0.31%
Annualized yield
1.10%
Previously paid
May 29, 2026 ($0.14)
Last record date
May 29, 2026
Last payment date
Jun 15, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for CSX (CSX). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.14 | -0.68% | $45.81 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.23% | +2.88% | |
| Q1 | $0.14 | -1.24% | $42.65 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.16% | -6.00% | |
| Q4 | $0.13 | -0.45% | $35.30 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.75% | +3.20% | |
| Q3 | $0.13 | -0.21% | $32.66 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.63% | -0.31% | |
| Q2 | $0.13 | -0.51% | $31.42 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.81% | +2.99% | |
| Q1 | $0.13 | 0.44% | $32.01 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.47% | -1.94% | |
| Q4 | $0.12 | -0.33% | $36.58 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.37% | -5.49% | |
| Q3 | $0.12 | 0.15% | $33.94 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.39% | -0.18% | |
| Q2 | $0.12 | 0.09% | $33.30 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.24% | -1.29% | |
| Q1 | $0.12 | -0.32% | $37.96 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.87% | +0.66% | |
| Q4 | $0.11 | 0.12% | $32.05 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.25% | +4.93% | |
| Q3 | $0.11 | -0.07% | $30.75 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.23% | -3.74% | |
| Q2 | $0.11 | -0.29% | $30.81 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.33% | +4.02% | |
| Q1 | $0.11 | 1.85% | $30.75 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.36% | -0.33% | |
| Q4 | $0.10 | 0.57% | $31.70 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.06% | -1.39% | |
| Q3 | $0.10 | -0.55% | $32.72 | 8 | no | yes | -5.07% | -2.23% | |
| Q2 | $0.10 | 0.79% | $31.58 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.62% | +2.09% | |
| Q1 | $0.10 | 0.21% | $33.60 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.28% | +11.70% | |
| Q4 | $0.09 | 1.15% | $35.57 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.23% | +3.61% | |
| Q3 | $0.09 | -0.51% | $33.45 | >30 | no | no | -8.34% | -5.52% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 18 | 90% | |
| 2–3 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
Pre-filled with CSX's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical CSX ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
-0.08%
Win rate (20 trades)
90%
Cumulative P&L
-1.57%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+42.20%
Best event
+0.41%
Worst event
-5.52%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · CSX (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| -5.52% | |
| +0.26% | |
| +0.30% | |
| +0.32% | |
| -2.23% | |
| +0.32% | |
| +0.36% | |
| +0.36% | |
| +0.36% | |
| +0.34% | |
| +0.32% | |
| +0.36% | |
| +0.35% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.41% | |
| +0.41% | |
| +0.40% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.31% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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