Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what CSX is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$25.96
Method range
$9.61 – $47.73
median $29.80
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $25.96 | -48.00% |
| Exit multiple | $33.64 | -32.62% |
| Analyst target | $47.73 | -4.41% |
| Graham number | $9.61 | -80.76% |
- Forward DCF$25.96
- Exit multiple$33.64
- Analyst target$47.73
- Graham number$9.61
Stock price
$49.93
FCF / share (TTM)
$1.01
3Y FCF CAGR
-11.1%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$5.06
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
21.7%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -886.7% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
-11.1%
Your model implies
21.7%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at -11% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.7% | 18.4% | 17.7% | 17.0% | 16.2% | 15.3% |
| 9.7% | 20.7% | 20.1% | 19.4% | 18.7% | 18.0% |
| 10.7% | 22.8% | 22.3% | 21.7% | 21.1% | 20.4% |
| 11.7% | 24.9% | 24.4% | 23.8% | 23.3% | 22.7% |
| 12.7% | 26.8% | 26.4% | 25.9% | 25.4% | 24.9% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.86
Low vs growth
Net debt
$18.7B
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.21
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
CSX (CSX) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
- Buybacks0.76% TTM
- Dividend Profile1.08% yield
- Dividend Calculator
- Dividend Forecast
- Dividend Capture
- Stock Split History5 splits
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.