Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what CSX is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$24.67
Method range
$8.44 – $44.38
median $28.71
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $24.67 | -47.51% |
| Exit multiple | $32.75 | -30.31% |
| Analyst target | $44.38 | -5.55% |
| Graham number | $8.44 | -82.04% |
- Forward DCF$24.67
- Exit multiple$32.75
- Analyst target$44.38
- Graham number$8.44
Stock price
$46.99
FCF / share (TTM)
$0.39
3Y FCF CAGR
-11.1%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$1.98
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
34.2%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -2275.5% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
-11.1%
Your model implies
34.2%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at -11% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.7% | 30.5% | 29.7% | 28.8% | 27.9% | 26.8% |
| 9.7% | 33.1% | 32.4% | 31.6% | 30.8% | 29.9% |
| 10.7% | 35.5% | 34.9% | 34.2% | 33.5% | 32.7% |
| 11.7% | 37.8% | 37.2% | 36.6% | 36.0% | 35.3% |
| 12.7% | 40.0% | 39.5% | 38.9% | 38.4% | 37.7% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
2.31
Demanding vs growth
Net debt
$18.7B
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.22
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
CSX (CSX) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation