CVS Health (CVS) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 90% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.34), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, CVS sits noticeably below the Healthcare sector benchmark of 100%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Jul 23, 2026 (±2 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 90%-10pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.34+0.19 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 90% | -10pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.34 | +0.19 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.73% | -0.40pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 55% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.80% | +0.60pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 13 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±2 days.
| Dividend | $0.67 |
| Per-event yield | 0.87% |
| Annualized yield | 3.37% |
| Previously paid | Apr 23, 2026 ($0.67) |
| Last record date | Apr 23, 2026 |
| Last payment date | May 4, 2026 |
CVS Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for CVS Health (CVS). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.67 | -0.43% | $76.43 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.43% | +9.85% | |
| Q1 | $0.67 | -0.61% | $81.49 | 1 | yes | yes | -13.25% | -7.84% | |
| Q4 | $0.67 | -0.94% | $82.01 | 2 | yes | yes | -7.43% | -5.68% | |
| Q3 | $0.67 | -0.89% | $61.64 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.09% | -1.58% | |
| Q2 | $0.67 | -0.54% | $65.17 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.49% | +0.81% | |
| Q1 | $0.67 | 1.00% | $52.99 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.57% | +8.48% | |
| Q4 | $0.67 | -0.98% | $60.34 | 13 | no | yes | -7.82% | -3.84% | |
| Q3 | $0.67 | -1.16% | $59.57 | 4 | yes | yes | -3.78% | +4.47% | |
| Q2 | $0.67 | -0.32% | $69.39 | 1 | yes | yes | -22.61% | -2.23% | |
| Q1 | $0.67 | -0.85% | $73.88 | 2 | yes | yes | -4.99% | -0.29% | |
| Q4 | $0.60 | -1.27% | $71.09 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.40% | -3.52% | |
| Q3 | $0.60 | -0.36% | $74.38 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.89% | +2.28% | |
| Q2 | $0.60 | -1.29% | $74.21 | >30 | no | no | -6.59% | -0.73% | |
| Q1 | $0.60 | -0.56% | $88.20 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.83% | +0.07% | |
| Q4 | $0.55 | -0.22% | $91.66 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.77% | +1.73% | |
| Q3 | $0.55 | -2.76% | $95.15 | 3 | yes | yes | -3.31% | +0.98% | |
| Q2 | $0.55 | -0.51% | $106.64 | >30 | no | no | -10.90% | -4.91% | |
| Q1 | $0.55 | -0.76% | $103.45 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.63% | +3.76% | |
| Q4 | $0.50 | -0.82% | $86.55 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.97% | +2.97% | |
| Q3 | $0.50 | -0.42% | $83.06 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.67% | +0.60% |
- +9.85%
- -7.84%
- -5.68%
- -1.58%
- +0.81%
- +8.48%
- -3.84%
- +4.47%
- -2.23%
- -0.29%
- -3.52%
- +2.28%
- -0.73%
- +0.07%
- +1.73%
- +0.98%
- -4.91%
- +3.76%
- +2.97%
- +0.60%
CVS Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 12 | 60% | |
| 2–3 days | 4 | 20% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 2 | 10% |
CVS Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with CVS's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $134.00
- After-tax dividend
- $87.10
- Slippage round-trip
- -$15.29
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$71.81
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.47%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~23.7%
CVS Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical CVS ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · CVS (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.60% | |
| +0.58% | |
| +0.53% | |
| -4.91% | |
| +0.58% | |
| +0.60% | |
| +0.69% | |
| -0.73% | |
| +0.81% | |
| +0.85% | |
| +0.90% | |
| +0.96% | |
| +1.12% | |
| -3.84% | |
| +1.25% | |
| +1.02% | |
| +1.08% | |
| +0.81% | |
| +0.82% | |
| +0.87% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.