What is a reverse DCF analysis?

Reverse DCF solves for the annual growth rate implied by the current price, instead of assuming a growth rate to compute fair value. This page runs the model on trailing EPS and on free cash flow per share — both views appear below so you can compare what the market implies under each.

What EPS growth is priced into CVX?

On the EPS basis, the model implies about 7.6% annual EPS growth for Chevron (CVX) at the current price. Compare to the 5-year historical EPS CAGR of 27.5%.

What is CVX's fair value based on historical growth?

If Chevron (CVX) grew at its historical per-share CAGR in the DCF setup, the model produces the following fair values. Using the historical EPS CAGR, fair value lands at about $905.88 — 369.4% above the current price.

Is CVX overvalued or undervalued?

Compare the implied per-share growth on each basis to the corresponding historical CAGR and, for EPS, to analyst consensus. A reverse DCF is one educational lens — it does not account for changes in capital structure, sector cycles, or business-model transitions, and it is not investment advice.

CVX fair value & reverse DCF

Fair value (multi-method)

Four independent methods triangulate what CVX is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.

Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)

$905.88

Margin of safety

+78.70% vs current price $192.98

Method range

$48.27 – $905.88

median $198.55

Methods lean undervalued

Valuation methods

Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.

Method	Fair value	Upside vs price
Forward DCF	$905.88	+369.42%
Exit multiple	$190.16	-1.46%
Analyst target	$206.93	+7.23%
Graham number	$48.27	-74.99%

Forward DCF$905.88
Exit multiple$190.16
Analyst target$206.93
Graham number$48.27

Stock price

$192.98

EPS (TTM)

$5.77

5Y EPS CAGR

27.5%

Fair value @ hist. growth

$905.88

This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.

Implied EPS growth

7.6%

per year over your projection horizon

Discount vs DCF

Margin of safety 78.7% vs hist-growth DCF

Historical 5Y CAGR

27.5%

Your model implies

7.6%

Analyst consensus for next year implies 145% — beyond the model's annualised scale. Consensus reflects a one-step EPS estimate vs TTM, not a multi-year CAGR.

Model inputs

Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.

Discount rate (cost of equity proxy)7.1%

Terminal growth2.50%

Projection years10 yr

Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions

Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.

Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
5.1%	3.6%	2.2%	0.7%	-1.2%	-3.6%
6.1%	6.6%	5.6%	4.5%	3.1%	1.5%
7.1%	9.3%	8.5%	7.6%	6.5%	5.4%
8.1%	11.8%	11.0%	10.3%	9.4%	8.5%
9.1%	14.0%	13.4%	12.7%	12.0%	11.2%

Color≤ historical CAGRModerate premiumHigh premium (≥ 15pp above hist)Your inputs

Historical multiples

Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.

P/EToday22.9· at high

5Y low9.8

Median14.4

5Y high22.9

P/SToday1.5· at high

5Y low1.4

Median1.4

5Y high1.5

EV/EBITDAToday7.8· at high

5Y low5.3

Median6.1

5Y high7.8

Net debt

$40.3B

Total debt − cash

Beta

0.49

Vs market benchmark

Annual diluted EPS

Per-share earnings by fiscal year — last 5 years anchor the CAGR reference above.

Scale: -2.96 to 18.28 EPS; horizontal line at 0. Fiscal years with no row in the database are omitted.

Frequently asked questions

Chevron (CVX) Key Financials

Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric

Explore more

Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation

Overview

CVX Overview

Counters

Income Statement

Cash Flow

Capital Return

How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.

Forecast & Valuation