Delta Air Lines (DAL) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 11 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.09), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, DAL sits roughly in line with the Industrials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Jul 30, 2026 (±7 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.09-0.10 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 11 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.09 | -0.10 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | 0.09% | +0.44pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 50% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -5.37% | -1.34pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 2 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±7 days.
| Dividend | $0.19 |
| Per-event yield | 0.27% |
| Annualized yield | 1.05% |
| Previously paid | Feb 26, 2026 ($0.19) |
| Last record date | Feb 26, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 19, 2026 |
DAL Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Delta Air Lines (DAL). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.19 | 1.15% | $69.38 | 1 | yes | yes | -20.32% | -11.36% | |
| Q4 | $0.19 | -0.11% | $61.70 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.58% | -4.44% | |
| Q3 | $0.19 | -0.28% | $53.60 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.88% | +0.41% | |
| Q2 | $0.15 | 0.08% | $51.14 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.33% | -1.97% | |
| Q1 | $0.15 | 0.26% | $61.70 | 1 | yes | yes | -28.48% | -10.68% | |
| Q4 | $0.15 | -0.92% | $50.98 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.31% | +8.69% | |
| Q3 | $0.15 | 0.51% | $43.18 | 1 | yes | yes | -13.64% | -11.14% | |
| Q2 | $0.10 | 0.68% | $52.60 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.95% | +0.93% | |
| Q1 | $0.10 | -0.36% | $42.12 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.26% | +0.33% | |
| Q4 | $0.10 | -0.20% | $35.83 | 1 | yes | yes | -11.30% | -7.23% | |
| Q3 | $0.10 | 0.15% | $47.71 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.86% | +1.97% | |
| Q1 | $0.40 | -0.39% | $58.72 | 2 | yes | yes | -24.51% | -14.86% | |
| Q4 | $0.40 | -1.10% | $54.65 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.14% | +1.96% | |
| Q3 | $0.40 | -1.11% | $63.09 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.61% | -2.61% | |
| Q2 | $0.35 | -0.15% | $58.29 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.24% | -2.56% | |
| Q1 | $0.35 | -0.67% | $50.43 | 4 | yes | yes | -4.38% | -0.97% | |
| Q4 | $0.35 | -0.61% | $56.05 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.32% | +2.00% | |
| Q3 | $0.35 | -0.81% | $51.68 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.81% | +4.37% | |
| Q2 | $0.30 | -0.14% | $51.62 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.58% | +3.46% | |
| Q1 | $0.30 | 0.19% | $53.16 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.54% | +0.93% |
- -11.36%
- -4.44%
- +0.41%
- -1.97%
- -10.68%
- +8.69%
- -11.14%
- +0.93%
- +0.33%
- -7.23%
- +1.97%
- -14.86%
- +1.96%
- -2.61%
- -2.56%
- -0.97%
- +2.00%
- +4.37%
- +3.46%
- +0.93%
DAL Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 15 | 75% | |
| 2–3 days | 4 | 20% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
DAL Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with DAL's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $38.00
- After-tax dividend
- $24.70
- Slippage round-trip
- -$13.88
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$10.82
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.08%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~3.9%
DAL Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical DAL ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · DAL (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.57% | |
| +0.59% | |
| +0.68% | |
| +0.62% | |
| +0.69% | |
| +0.60% | |
| +0.64% | |
| +0.74% | |
| +0.69% | |
| +0.21% | |
| +0.28% | |
| +0.24% | |
| +0.19% | |
| +0.35% | |
| +0.29% | |
| +0.24% | |
| +0.29% | |
| +0.35% | |
| +0.30% | |
| +0.27% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.