Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what DECK is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$494.61
Method range
$19.57 – $494.61
median $119.09
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $494.61 | +357.43% |
| Exit multiple | $119.45 | +10.47% |
| Analyst target | $118.73 | +9.80% |
| Graham number | $19.57 | -81.90% |
- Forward DCF$494.61
- Exit multiple$119.45
- Analyst target$118.73
- Graham number$19.57
Stock price
$108.13
FCF / share (TTM)
$1.16
3Y FCF CAGR
79.3%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$2369.19
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
29.6%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety 95.4% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
79.3%
Your model implies
29.6%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 79% annual growth.
Cumulative FCF covers the current price by year 7.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.3% | 25.9% | 25.1% | 24.2% | 23.2% | 22.1% |
| 9.3% | 28.5% | 27.8% | 27.0% | 26.2% | 25.3% |
| 10.3% | 30.9% | 30.3% | 29.6% | 28.8% | 28.1% |
| 11.3% | 33.2% | 32.6% | 32.0% | 31.3% | 30.6% |
| 12.3% | 35.3% | 34.8% | 34.3% | 33.7% | 33.1% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net cash
$1.5B
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.14
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Deckers Outdoor (DECK) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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