Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what DECK is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$474.32
Method range
$19.57 – $474.32
median $119.91
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $474.32 | +362.89% |
| Exit multiple | $119.22 | +16.35% |
| Analyst target | $120.60 | +17.69% |
| Graham number | $19.57 | -80.91% |
- Forward DCF$474.32
- Exit multiple$119.22
- Analyst target$120.60
- Graham number$19.57
Stock price
$102.47
FCF / share (TTM)
$1.16
3Y FCF CAGR
79.3%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$2,256.90
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
29.4%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety 95.5% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
79.3%
Your model implies
29.4%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 79% annual growth.
Cumulative FCF covers the current price by year 7.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | 25.8% | 25.1% | 24.2% | 23.3% | 22.2% |
| 9.5% | 28.3% | 27.6% | 26.9% | 26.1% | 25.2% |
| 10.5% | 30.7% | 30.1% | 29.4% | 28.7% | 28.0% |
| 11.5% | 32.9% | 32.4% | 31.8% | 31.2% | 30.5% |
| 12.5% | 35.0% | 34.5% | 34.0% | 33.5% | 32.9% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net cash
$1.53B
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.17
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Deckers Outdoor (DECK) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.