Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what DLTR is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$114.40
Method range
$26.60 – $134.10
median $119.32
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $114.40 | +5.15% |
| Exit multiple | $134.10 | +23.25% |
| Analyst target | $124.25 | +14.20% |
| Graham number | $26.60 | -75.55% |
- Forward DCF$114.40
- Exit multiple$134.10
- Analyst target$124.25
- Graham number$26.60
Stock price
$108.80
FCF / share (TTM)
$1.99
3Y FCF CAGR
39.6%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$648.73
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
15.2%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety 83.2% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
39.6%
Your model implies
15.2%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 40% annual growth.
Cumulative FCF covers the current price by year 9.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.6% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 4.7% |
| 6.6% | 14.2% | 13.2% | 12.1% | 10.8% | 9.3% |
| 7.6% | 17.0% | 16.1% | 15.2% | 14.2% | 13.0% |
| 8.6% | 19.5% | 18.7% | 18.0% | 17.1% | 16.2% |
| 9.6% | 21.8% | 21.2% | 20.5% | 19.7% | 19.0% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$3.9B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.61
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Dollar Tree (DLTR) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation