Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what DLTR is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$107.60
Method range
$26.60 – $134.21
median $115.69
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $107.60 | -11.91% |
| Exit multiple | $134.21 | +9.87% |
| Analyst target | $123.77 | +1.33% |
| Graham number | $26.60 | -78.22% |
- Forward DCF$107.60
- Exit multiple$134.21
- Analyst target$123.77
- Graham number$26.60
Stock price
$122.15
FCF / share (TTM)
$1.99
3Y FCF CAGR
39.6%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$597.52
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
17.7%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety 79.6% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
39.6%
Your model implies
17.7%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 40% annual growth.
Cumulative FCF covers the current price by year 9.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.9% | 13.7% | 12.5% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 7.7% |
| 6.9% | 16.7% | 15.7% | 14.6% | 13.4% | 12.1% |
| 7.9% | 19.4% | 18.6% | 17.7% | 16.7% | 15.6% |
| 8.9% | 21.9% | 21.1% | 20.4% | 19.6% | 18.7% |
| 9.9% | 24.2% | 23.5% | 22.9% | 22.2% | 21.4% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$6.34B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.65
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Dollar Tree (DLTR) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.