Domino's Pizza (DPZ) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.13), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, DPZ sits roughly in line with the Consumer Cyclical sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 14, 2026 (±2 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.13-0.08 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.13 | -0.08 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.01% | +0.47pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 55% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -2.68% | +2.00pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 6 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±2 days.
| Dividend | $1.99 |
| Per-event yield | 0.50% |
| Annualized yield | 2.36% |
| Previously paid | Mar 13, 2026 ($1.99) |
| Last record date | Mar 13, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 30, 2026 |
DPZ Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Domino's Pizza (DPZ). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $1.99 | 0.05% | $395.98 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.85% | -5.21% | |
| Q4 | $1.74 | -0.47% | $431.73 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.53% | -0.49% | |
| Q3 | $1.74 | -0.09% | $452.05 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.04% | -5.61% | |
| Q2 | $1.74 | -0.58% | $451.00 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.59% | +1.85% | |
| Q1 | $1.74 | 1.01% | $428.67 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.02% | +8.04% | |
| Q4 | $1.51 | -0.46% | $464.89 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.56% | -8.00% | |
| Q3 | $1.51 | 2.28% | $405.84 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.95% | +2.49% | |
| Q2 | $1.51 | -0.67% | $528.75 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.01% | +1.17% | |
| Q1 | $1.51 | -0.49% | $452.48 | 6 | no | yes | -2.76% | +1.08% | |
| Q4 | $1.21 | 0.55% | $402.80 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.71% | +1.79% | |
| Q3 | $1.21 | 0.16% | $396.46 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.21% | -4.34% | |
| Q2 | $1.21 | 0.08% | $301.89 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.79% | +6.74% | |
| Q1 | $1.21 | 0.82% | $302.59 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.40% | +5.37% | |
| Q4 | $1.10 | -0.52% | $361.87 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.96% | -0.67% | |
| Q3 | $1.10 | 0.00% | $350.38 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.61% | -4.59% | |
| Q2 | $1.10 | -0.67% | $380.63 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.55% | +2.69% | |
| Q1 | $1.10 | -0.11% | $386.37 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.33% | +3.83% | |
| Q4 | $0.94 | -1.16% | $537.36 | 6 | no | yes | -5.57% | -1.20% | |
| Q3 | $0.94 | 0.17% | $511.10 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.27% | -2.35% | |
| Q2 | $0.94 | -0.53% | $452.96 | 4 | yes | yes | -1.89% | +1.64% |
- -5.21%
- -0.49%
- -5.61%
- +1.85%
- +8.04%
- -8.00%
- +2.49%
- +1.17%
- +1.08%
- +1.79%
- -4.34%
- +6.74%
- +5.37%
- -0.67%
- -4.59%
- +2.69%
- +3.83%
- -1.20%
- -2.35%
- +1.64%
DPZ Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 17 | 85% | |
| 2–3 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
DPZ Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with DPZ's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $398.00
- After-tax dividend
- $258.70
- Slippage round-trip
- -$79.20
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$179.50
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.23%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~11.4%
DPZ Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical DPZ ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · DPZ (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.21% | |
| +0.18% | |
| -1.20% | |
| +0.28% | |
| +0.29% | |
| +0.31% | |
| +0.30% | |
| +0.40% | |
| +0.40% | |
| +0.31% | |
| +0.30% | |
| +1.08% | |
| +0.29% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.32% | |
| +0.41% | |
| +0.39% | |
| +0.38% | |
| +0.40% | |
| +0.50% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.