Darden Restaurants (DRI) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 2 trading days (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.34), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, DRI sits roughly in line with the Consumer Cyclical sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, so this ticker touches more slowly than peers.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Jul 10, 2026 (±1 day), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 2d+1.0d vs sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.34+0.13 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 2d | +1.0d vs sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.34 | +0.13 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -1.05% | -0.58pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 60% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -4.07% | +0.61pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 15 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±1 day.
| Dividend | $1.50 |
| Per-event yield | 0.76% |
| Annualized yield | 3.12% |
| Previously paid | Apr 10, 2026 ($1.50) |
| Last record date | Apr 10, 2026 |
| Last payment date | May 1, 2026 |
DRI Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Darden Restaurants (DRI). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $1.50 | -0.85% | $196.34 | 3 | yes | yes | -4.80% | +3.17% | |
| Q1 | $1.50 | -0.97% | $202.50 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.85% | +6.73% | |
| Q4 | $1.50 | -0.61% | $186.69 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.99% | +1.61% | |
| Q3 | $1.50 | -0.73% | $215.83 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.87% | -3.34% | |
| Q2 | $1.40 | -2.30% | $196.35 | 2 | yes | yes | -4.64% | +2.68% | |
| Q1 | $1.40 | -1.82% | $183.73 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.57% | -0.32% | |
| Q4 | $1.40 | -1.12% | $158.56 | 4 | yes | yes | -2.13% | +4.48% | |
| Q3 | $1.40 | -0.93% | $140.29 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.15% | +6.03% | |
| Q2 | $1.31 | -0.67% | $157.94 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.05% | -1.58% | |
| Q1 | $1.31 | -1.80% | $163.95 | 15 | no | yes | -5.62% | -3.01% | |
| Q4 | $1.31 | -1.20% | $141.11 | 8 | no | yes | -5.49% | -4.11% | |
| Q3 | $1.31 | -0.87% | $164.11 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.33% | +2.83% | |
| Q2 | $1.21 | -0.83% | $153.06 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.60% | +0.37% | |
| Q1 | $1.21 | -0.67% | $146.98 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.18% | +2.20% | |
| Q4 | $1.21 | -0.47% | $133.10 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.39% | +0.81% | |
| Q3 | $1.21 | -1.17% | $116.71 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.11% | +0.57% | |
| Q2 | $1.10 | -1.19% | $128.49 | 3 | yes | yes | -4.09% | +3.16% | |
| Q1 | $1.10 | -0.69% | $147.42 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.89% | -2.25% | |
| Q4 | $1.10 | -0.02% | $157.34 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.65% | -3.60% | |
| Q3 | $1.10 | -2.16% | $148.79 | 3 | yes | yes | -10.32% | -1.94% |
- +3.17%
- +6.73%
- +1.61%
- -3.34%
- +2.68%
- -0.32%
- +4.48%
- +6.03%
- -1.58%
- -3.01%
- -4.11%
- +2.83%
- +0.37%
- +2.20%
- +0.81%
- +0.57%
- +3.16%
- -2.25%
- -3.60%
- -1.94%
DRI Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 9 | 45% | |
| 2–3 days | 8 | 40% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
DRI Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with DRI's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $300.00
- After-tax dividend
- $195.00
- Slippage round-trip
- -$39.27
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$155.73
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.40%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~20.0%
DRI Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical DRI ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · DRI (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.74% | |
| +0.70% | |
| +0.75% | |
| +0.86% | |
| +1.04% | |
| +0.91% | |
| +0.82% | |
| +0.79% | |
| +0.80% | |
| -4.11% | |
| -3.01% | |
| +0.83% | |
| +1.00% | |
| +0.88% | |
| +0.76% | |
| +0.71% | |
| +0.69% | |
| +0.80% | |
| +0.74% | |
| +0.76% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.