Ecolab (ECL) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.15), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, ECL sits roughly in line with the Basic Materials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 15, 2026 (±0 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.15-0.06 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.15 | -0.06 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | 0.03% | +0.44pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 45% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -2.69% | +2.02pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 9 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±0 days.
| Dividend | $0.73 |
| Per-event yield | 0.27% |
| Annualized yield | 1.04% |
| Previously paid | Mar 17, 2026 ($0.73) |
| Last record date | Mar 17, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Apr 15, 2026 |
ECL Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Ecolab (ECL). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.73 | 0.38% | $273.11 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.49% | -2.89% | |
| Q4 | $0.73 | -0.01% | $261.11 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.98% | +1.67% | |
| Q3 | $0.65 | -0.43% | $270.61 | 9 | no | yes | -2.63% | -1.53% | |
| Q2 | $0.65 | -0.95% | $266.14 | 4 | yes | yes | -2.66% | +0.36% | |
| Q1 | $0.65 | -0.23% | $251.88 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.85% | -0.01% | |
| Q4 | $0.65 | 0.16% | $248.40 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.17% | -2.82% | |
| Q3 | $0.57 | -0.25% | $253.20 | 5 | yes | yes | -2.01% | +0.64% | |
| Q2 | $0.57 | -0.49% | $243.20 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.55% | -0.81% | |
| Q1 | $0.57 | 0.10% | $226.70 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.65% | +0.41% | |
| Q4 | $0.57 | -0.29% | $196.78 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.99% | +1.23% | |
| Q3 | $0.53 | -0.42% | $177.96 | 3 | yes | yes | -6.16% | -2.96% | |
| Q2 | $0.53 | 0.52% | $182.22 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.79% | -0.71% | |
| Q1 | $0.53 | 0.27% | $154.58 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.06% | +3.98% | |
| Q4 | $0.53 | -0.94% | $144.05 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.72% | +1.34% | |
| Q3 | $0.51 | -0.84% | $157.64 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.07% | -6.84% | |
| Q2 | $0.51 | 0.49% | $145.63 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.14% | +8.10% | |
| Q1 | $0.51 | 2.65% | $158.85 | 1 | yes | yes | 1.50% | +7.79% | |
| Q4 | $0.51 | -0.36% | $232.01 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.08% | -3.22% | |
| Q3 | $0.48 | 1.13% | $225.84 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.92% | -3.66% | |
| Q2 | $0.48 | -0.69% | $214.50 | 2 | yes | yes | -4.52% | -1.97% |
- -2.89%
- +1.67%
- -1.53%
- +0.36%
- -0.01%
- -2.82%
- +0.64%
- -0.81%
- +0.41%
- +1.23%
- -2.96%
- -0.71%
- +3.98%
- +1.34%
- -6.84%
- +8.10%
- +7.79%
- -3.22%
- -3.66%
- -1.97%
ECL Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 14 | 70% | |
| 2–3 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 4–5 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
ECL Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with ECL's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $146.00
- After-tax dividend
- $94.90
- Slippage round-trip
- -$54.62
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$40.28
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.07%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~3.7%
ECL Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical ECL ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · ECL (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.22% | |
| +0.21% | |
| +0.22% | |
| +0.32% | |
| +0.35% | |
| +0.32% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.34% | |
| +0.29% | |
| +0.30% | |
| +0.29% | |
| +0.25% | |
| +0.23% | |
| +0.23% | |
| +0.26% | |
| +0.26% | |
| +0.24% | |
| -1.53% | |
| +0.28% | |
| +0.27% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.