EME dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 100% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
EMCOR Group (EME) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.03), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, EME sits roughly in line with the Industrials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Oct 14, 2026 (±1 day), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
Touch rate (30d)
100%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.03
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.03 | -0.14 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | 0.48% | +0.82pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 50% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -5.27% | -1.24pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 2 | — |
Estimated from historical pattern ±1 day.
Dividend
$0.40
Per-event yield
0.05%
Annualized yield
0.19%
Previously paid
Jul 15, 2026 ($0.40)
Last record date
Jul 15, 2026
Last payment date
Jul 31, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for EMCOR Group (EME). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 | $0.40 | 0.82% | $774.74 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.86% | -2.48% | |
| Q2 | $0.40 | -0.12% | $803.64 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.85% | +8.69% | |
| Q1 | $0.40 | -0.50% | $670.55 | 2 | yes | yes | -4.46% | +4.88% | |
| Q4 | $0.25 | 1.77% | $674.14 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.09% | -1.63% | |
| Q3 | $0.25 | 0.97% | $556.86 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.03% | +0.43% | |
| Q2 | $0.25 | -0.08% | $382.40 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.65% | +7.35% | |
| Q1 | $0.25 | 1.01% | $502.02 | 1 | yes | yes | -14.56% | +5.95% | |
| Q4 | $0.25 | 0.08% | $452.60 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.73% | -0.97% | |
| Q3 | $0.25 | 0.30% | $376.45 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.14% | -0.12% | |
| Q2 | $0.25 | 1.40% | $351.88 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.96% | -5.41% | |
| Q1 | $0.18 | 0.65% | $221.20 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.86% | +1.30% | |
| Q4 | $0.18 | 0.01% | $206.67 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.34% | -6.75% | |
| Q3 | $0.18 | 0.71% | $190.95 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.79% | -0.82% | |
| Q2 | $0.18 | -0.53% | $155.99 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.67% | +1.26% | |
| Q1 | $0.15 | -0.02% | $151.85 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.07% | -4.82% | |
| Q4 | $0.15 | 1.58% | $121.95 | 1 | yes | yes | 1.35% | +5.16% | |
| Q3 | $0.13 | 1.39% | $100.52 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.16% | +6.09% | |
| Q2 | $0.13 | 0.28% | $116.54 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.83% | -2.20% | |
| Q1 | $0.13 | -1.27% | $124.85 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.21% | -2.92% | |
| Q4 | $0.13 | 1.15% | $116.17 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.77% | +3.99% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 19 | 95% | |
| 2–3 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
Pre-filled with EME's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical EME ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
+0.08%
Win rate (20 trades)
100%
Cumulative P&L
+1.61%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+566.45%
Best event
+0.13%
Worst event
+0.04%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · EME (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.11% | |
| +0.10% | |
| +0.11% | |
| +0.13% | |
| +0.12% | |
| +0.10% | |
| +0.12% | |
| +0.09% | |
| +0.09% | |
| +0.08% | |
| +0.07% | |
| +0.07% | |
| +0.06% | |
| +0.05% | |
| +0.07% | |
| +0.04% | |
| +0.04% | |
| +0.06% | |
| +0.05% | |
| +0.05% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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