Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what ESTC is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$149,069.46
Method range
$33.94 – $149,069.46
median $162.30
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $149,069.46 | +253,937.93% |
| Exit multiple | $263.47 | +348.99% |
| Analyst target | $61.13 | +4.18% |
| Graham number | $33.94 | -42.16% |
- Forward DCF$149,069.46
- Exit multiple$263.47
- Analyst target$61.13
- Graham number$33.94
Stock price
$58.68
FCF / share (TTM)
$1.44
3Y FCF CAGR
105.8%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$12,766.35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
16.7%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety 99.5% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
105.8%
Your model implies
16.7%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 106% annual growth.
Cumulative FCF covers the current price by year 5.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.7% | 13.3% | 12.5% | 11.7% | 10.7% | 9.6% |
| 8.7% | 15.7% | 15.0% | 14.3% | 13.5% | 12.6% |
| 9.7% | 17.9% | 17.3% | 16.7% | 16.0% | 15.3% |
| 10.7% | 20.0% | 19.5% | 18.9% | 18.3% | 17.7% |
| 11.7% | 22.0% | 21.5% | 21.0% | 20.4% | 19.9% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.00
Low vs growth
Net cash
$179M
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.00
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Elastic N.V. (ESTC) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.