Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what ESTC is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$173,871.84
Method range
$33.94 – $173,871.84
median $163.33
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $173,871.84 | +281,291.55% |
| Exit multiple | $263.77 | +326.88% |
| Analyst target | $62.88 | +1.76% |
| Graham number | $33.94 | -45.07% |
- Forward DCF$173,871.84
- Exit multiple$263.77
- Analyst target$62.88
- Graham number$33.94
Stock price
$61.79
FCF / share (TTM)
$1.44
3Y FCF CAGR
105.8%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$14862.11
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
15.7%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety 99.6% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
105.8%
Your model implies
15.7%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 106% annual growth.
Cumulative FCF covers the current price by year 5.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | 12.2% | 11.3% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 7.9% |
| 8.0% | 14.8% | 14.0% | 13.2% | 12.3% | 11.2% |
| 9.0% | 17.1% | 16.4% | 15.7% | 15.0% | 14.1% |
| 10.0% | 19.3% | 18.7% | 18.1% | 17.4% | 16.7% |
| 11.0% | 21.3% | 20.8% | 20.3% | 19.7% | 19.1% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.00
Low vs growth
Net cash
$179M
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.89
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Elastic N.V. (ESTC) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation