Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.10), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, FCX sits roughly in line with the Basic Materials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Jul 16, 2026 (±1 day), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.10-0.11 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.10 | -0.11 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.17% | +0.24pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 50% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -7.33% | -2.63pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 29 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±1 day.
| Dividend | $0.15 |
| Per-event yield | 0.22% |
| Annualized yield | 0.87% |
| Previously paid | Apr 15, 2026 ($0.15) |
| Last record date | Apr 15, 2026 |
| Last payment date | May 1, 2026 |
FCX Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Freeport-McMoRan (FCX). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.15 | -0.45% | $68.27 | 1 | yes | yes | -15.23% | +3.28% | |
| Q1 | $0.15 | -2.27% | $60.35 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.39% | +0.35% | |
| Q4 | $0.15 | 2.07% | $41.97 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.41% | -2.48% | |
| Q3 | $0.15 | -0.85% | $45.63 | 5 | yes | yes | -7.50% | +0.70% | |
| Q2 | $0.15 | -1.36% | $33.75 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.83% | +4.71% | |
| Q1 | $0.15 | 2.41% | $39.50 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.23% | -2.15% | |
| Q4 | $0.15 | -1.78% | $48.86 | 4 | yes | yes | -4.79% | -0.37% | |
| Q3 | $0.15 | -1.31% | $51.28 | >30 | no | no | -15.62% | -9.98% | |
| Q2 | $0.15 | 2.31% | $50.74 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.17% | -1.93% | |
| Q1 | $0.15 | 0.70% | $41.30 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.27% | -5.76% | |
| Q4 | $0.15 | -0.48% | $37.15 | 29 | no | yes | -10.96% | -4.76% | |
| Q3 | $0.15 | 1.15% | $40.72 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.36% | +3.24% | |
| Q2 | $0.15 | 1.46% | $41.12 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.85% | +0.95% | |
| Q1 | $0.15 | 0.46% | $45.32 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.78% | +0.53% | |
| Q4 | $0.15 | -3.99% | $28.84 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.65% | +1.49% | |
| Q3 | $0.15 | -4.31% | $26.44 | 3 | yes | yes | -6.20% | +9.91% | |
| Q2 | $0.15 | 1.02% | $48.00 | 1 | yes | yes | -17.58% | -6.04% | |
| Q1 | $0.15 | -1.44% | $45.15 | 1 | yes | yes | -18.63% | -8.88% | |
| Q4 | $0.07 | 3.27% | $35.82 | 1 | yes | yes | 2.07% | +7.47% | |
| Q3 | $0.07 | -0.08% | $35.73 | 1 | yes | yes | -12.23% | -2.81% |
- +3.28%
- +0.35%
- -2.48%
- +0.70%
- +4.71%
- -2.15%
- -0.37%
- -9.98%
- -1.93%
- -5.76%
- -4.76%
- +3.24%
- +0.95%
- +0.53%
- +1.49%
- +9.91%
- -6.04%
- -8.88%
- +7.47%
- -2.81%
FCX Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 15 | 75% | |
| 2–3 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 4–5 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
FCX Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with FCX's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $30.00
- After-tax dividend
- $19.50
- Slippage round-trip
- -$13.65
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$5.85
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.04%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~2.2%
FCX Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical FCX ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · FCX (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.21% | |
| +0.21% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.31% | |
| +0.57% | |
| +0.52% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.36% | |
| +0.37% | |
| -4.76% | |
| +0.36% | |
| +0.30% | |
| -9.98% | |
| +0.31% | |
| +0.38% | |
| +0.44% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.36% | |
| +0.25% | |
| +0.22% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.