FCX dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 95% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.10), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, FCX sits roughly in line with the Basic Materials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit.
Touch rate (30d)
95%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.10
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.10 | -0.08 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.12% | +0.26pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 55% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -7.33% | -2.39pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 29 | — |
The company has not declared a dividend, and we don't have enough recent history to extrapolate a reliable estimate.
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Freeport-McMoRan (FCX). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 | $0.15 | 1.10% | $61.95 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.60% | +5.17% | |
| Q2 | $0.15 | -0.45% | $68.27 | 1 | yes | yes | -15.23% | +3.28% | |
| Q1 | $0.15 | -2.27% | $60.35 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.39% | +0.35% | |
| Q4 | $0.15 | 2.07% | $41.97 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.41% | -2.48% | |
| Q3 | $0.15 | -0.85% | $45.63 | 5 | yes | yes | -7.50% | +0.70% | |
| Q2 | $0.15 | -1.36% | $33.75 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.83% | +4.71% | |
| Q1 | $0.15 | 2.41% | $39.50 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.23% | -2.15% | |
| Q4 | $0.15 | -1.78% | $48.86 | 4 | yes | yes | -4.79% | -0.37% | |
| Q3 | $0.15 | -1.31% | $51.28 | >30 | no | no | -15.62% | -9.98% | |
| Q2 | $0.15 | 2.31% | $50.74 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.17% | -1.93% | |
| Q1 | $0.15 | 0.70% | $41.30 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.27% | -5.76% | |
| Q4 | $0.15 | -0.48% | $37.15 | 29 | no | yes | -10.96% | -4.76% | |
| Q3 | $0.15 | 1.15% | $40.72 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.36% | +3.24% | |
| Q2 | $0.15 | 1.46% | $41.12 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.85% | +0.95% | |
| Q1 | $0.15 | 0.46% | $45.32 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.78% | +0.53% | |
| Q4 | $0.15 | -3.99% | $28.84 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.65% | +1.49% | |
| Q3 | $0.15 | -4.31% | $26.44 | 3 | yes | yes | -6.20% | +9.91% | |
| Q2 | $0.15 | 1.02% | $48.00 | 1 | yes | yes | -17.58% | -6.04% | |
| Q1 | $0.15 | -1.44% | $45.15 | 1 | yes | yes | -18.63% | -8.88% | |
| Q4 | $0.08 | 3.27% | $35.82 | 1 | yes | yes | 2.07% | +7.47% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 15 | 75% | |
| 2–3 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 4–5 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
Pre-filled with FCX's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical FCX ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
-0.43%
Win rate (20 trades)
90%
Cumulative P&L
-8.56%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+78.38%
Best event
+0.57%
Worst event
-9.98%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · FCX (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.21% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.31% | |
| +0.57% | |
| +0.52% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.36% | |
| +0.37% | |
| -4.76% | |
| +0.36% | |
| +0.30% | |
| -9.98% | |
| +0.31% | |
| +0.38% | |
| +0.44% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.36% | |
| +0.25% | |
| +0.22% | |
| +0.24% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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