Comfort Systems USA (FIX) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.03), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, FIX sits roughly in line with the Industrials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 15, 2026 (±7 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.03-0.15 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.03 | -0.15 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.64% | -0.29pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 55% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -4.76% | -0.73pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 2 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±7 days.
| Dividend | $0.80 |
| Per-event yield | 0.06% |
| Annualized yield | 0.13% |
| Previously paid | Mar 6, 2026 ($0.70) |
| Last record date | Mar 6, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 17, 2026 |
FIX Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Comfort Systems USA (FIX). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.70 | -4.32% | $1348.22 | 2 | yes | yes | -9.12% | +1.32% | |
| Q4 | $0.60 | -1.00% | $973.18 | 1 | yes | yes | -13.51% | -9.90% | |
| Q3 | $0.50 | -1.25% | $702.10 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.57% | -1.08% | |
| Q2 | $0.45 | 0.76% | $463.37 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.45% | +1.85% | |
| Q1 | $0.40 | -3.84% | $324.24 | 2 | yes | yes | -5.63% | +6.94% | |
| Q4 | $0.35 | 0.00% | $446.28 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.46% | +9.87% | |
| Q3 | $0.30 | 0.28% | $313.58 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.43% | +6.23% | |
| Q2 | $0.30 | 0.58% | $347.21 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.55% | -8.84% | |
| Q1 | $0.25 | 0.02% | $313.51 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.96% | -3.45% | |
| Q4 | $0.25 | -0.47% | $201.61 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.12% | -1.78% | |
| Q3 | $0.23 | -0.06% | $178.93 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.48% | +1.67% | |
| Q2 | $0.20 | 0.25% | $150.66 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.88% | -3.73% | |
| Q1 | $0.17 | 0.02% | $148.82 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.51% | -6.47% | |
| Q4 | $0.15 | -0.02% | $121.31 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.11% | +4.04% | |
| Q3 | $0.14 | -1.21% | $107.54 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.49% | -4.74% | |
| Q2 | $0.14 | 1.10% | $82.58 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.06% | +0.04% | |
| Q1 | $0.13 | -2.29% | $89.41 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.29% | +3.60% | |
| Q4 | $0.13 | -0.66% | $99.08 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.60% | +3.42% | |
| Q3 | $0.12 | -0.14% | $77.71 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.43% | -5.56% | |
| Q2 | $0.12 | 0.14% | $80.50 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.25% | +0.38% |
- +1.32%
- -9.90%
- -1.08%
- +1.85%
- +6.94%
- +9.87%
- +6.23%
- -8.84%
- -3.45%
- -1.78%
- +1.67%
- -3.73%
- -6.47%
- +4.04%
- -4.74%
- +0.04%
- +3.60%
- +3.42%
- -5.56%
- +0.38%
FIX Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 18 | 90% | |
| 2–3 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
FIX Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with FIX's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $160.00
- After-tax dividend
- $104.00
- Slippage round-trip
- -$269.64
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- $-165.64
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.06%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- -0.06%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~-3.1%
FIX Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical FIX ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · FIX (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.14% | |
| +0.15% | |
| +0.13% | |
| +0.15% | |
| +0.17% | |
| +0.13% | |
| +0.12% | |
| +0.12% | |
| +0.13% | |
| +0.13% | |
| +0.12% | |
| +0.08% | |
| +0.09% | |
| +0.10% | |
| +0.08% | |
| +0.12% | |
| +0.10% | |
| +0.07% | |
| +0.06% | |
| +0.05% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.