Honeywell International (HON) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.28), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, HON sits roughly in line with the Industrials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.28+0.09 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.28 | +0.09 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.34% | in line with sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 60% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -2.54% | +1.49pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 23 | — |
Next ex-dividend
The company has not declared a dividend, and we don't have enough recent history to extrapolate a reliable estimate.
HON Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Honeywell International (HON). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $1.19 | 0.21% | $240.88 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.19% | -1.83% | |
| Q4 | $1.19 | -0.71% | $199.87 | 23 | no | yes | -6.56% | -4.33% | |
| Q3 | $1.13 | -0.08% | $218.20 | 4 | yes | yes | -1.47% | +2.64% | |
| Q2 | $1.13 | 0.00% | $222.29 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.75% | +0.39% | |
| Q1 | $1.13 | 0.34% | $212.27 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.55% | +1.59% | |
| Q4 | $1.13 | -0.72% | $230.67 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.54% | -0.19% | |
| Q3 | $1.08 | -0.44% | $198.46 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.82% | +2.57% | |
| Q2 | $1.08 | -0.04% | $205.06 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.98% | -2.24% | |
| Q1 | $1.08 | 0.36% | $197.57 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.76% | +3.10% | |
| Q4 | $1.08 | -0.41% | $184.62 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.77% | +3.88% | |
| Q3 | $1.03 | -0.54% | $189.24 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.20% | -1.18% | |
| Q2 | $1.03 | -0.71% | $197.34 | 6 | no | yes | -3.27% | +0.98% | |
| Q1 | $1.03 | 0.28% | $195.49 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.00% | -0.01% | |
| Q4 | $1.03 | -0.64% | $211.36 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.38% | +1.74% | |
| Q3 | $0.98 | -0.12% | $197.23 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.46% | +3.79% | |
| Q2 | $0.98 | -0.54% | $192.02 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.71% | +0.84% | |
| Q1 | $0.98 | -2.24% | $178.96 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.54% | +5.33% | |
| Q4 | $0.98 | -0.21% | $227.75 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.53% | -2.76% | |
| Q3 | $0.93 | -0.28% | $234.18 | >30 | no | no | -3.48% | -2.36% | |
| Q2 | $0.93 | -0.55% | $220.04 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.48% | +1.37% |
- -1.83%
- -4.33%
- +2.64%
- +0.39%
- +1.59%
- -0.19%
- +2.57%
- -2.24%
- +3.10%
- +3.88%
- -1.18%
- +0.98%
- -0.01%
- +1.74%
- +3.79%
- +0.84%
- +5.33%
- -2.76%
- -2.36%
- +1.37%
HON Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 16 | 80% | |
| 2–3 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
HON Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with HON's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $238.00
- After-tax dividend
- $154.70
- Slippage round-trip
- -$48.18
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$106.52
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.22%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~11.1%
HON Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical HON ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · HON (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.42% | |
| -2.36% | |
| +0.43% | |
| +0.55% | |
| +0.51% | |
| +0.50% | |
| +0.49% | |
| +0.53% | |
| +0.98% | |
| +0.54% | |
| +0.58% | |
| +0.55% | |
| +0.53% | |
| +0.54% | |
| +0.49% | |
| +0.53% | |
| +0.51% | |
| +0.52% | |
| -4.33% | |
| +0.49% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.