HRL dividend capture — median 2d pre-ex touch, 95% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Hormel Foods (HRL) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 2 trading days (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.47), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, HRL sits roughly in line with the Consumer Defensive sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, so this ticker touches more slowly than peers.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Oct 12, 2026 (±1 day), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
Touch rate (30d)
95%
Median days-to-touch
2d
Signal-to-noise
0.47
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 2d | +1.0d vs sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.47 | +0.09 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.74% | in line with sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 55% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.10% | +0.89pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 13 | — |
Estimated from historical pattern ±1 day.
Dividend
$0.29
Per-event yield
1.18%
Annualized yield
4.77%
Previously paid
Jul 13, 2026 ($0.29)
Last record date
Jul 13, 2026
Last payment date
Aug 17, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Hormel Foods (HRL). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 | $0.29 | -0.89% | $24.73 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.06% | +3.41% | |
| Q2 | $0.29 | -1.58% | $20.87 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.64% | +3.61% | |
| Q1 | $0.29 | -1.33% | $23.23 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.19% | +6.98% | |
| Q4 | $0.29 | -1.49% | $23.55 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.78% | +3.48% | |
| Q3 | $0.29 | -1.15% | $30.51 | >30 | no | no | -5.41% | -4.36% | |
| Q2 | $0.29 | -1.35% | $30.31 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.10% | +2.28% | |
| Q1 | $0.29 | -0.33% | $30.05 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.09% | +3.66% | |
| Q4 | $0.28 | -0.51% | $31.23 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.15% | +0.46% | |
| Q3 | $0.28 | -0.58% | $30.97 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.42% | +2.11% | |
| Q2 | $0.28 | -0.92% | $34.95 | 7 | no | yes | -3.49% | +0.21% | |
| Q1 | $0.28 | -0.28% | $31.77 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.10% | -3.58% | |
| Q4 | $0.28 | -1.78% | $32.67 | 13 | no | yes | -6.03% | -2.98% | |
| Q3 | $0.28 | -0.45% | $39.76 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.71% | +1.65% | |
| Q2 | $0.28 | -0.62% | $40.15 | 6 | no | yes | -2.62% | -0.06% | |
| Q1 | $0.28 | -0.47% | $46.53 | 2 | yes | yes | -5.27% | -3.45% | |
| Q4 | $0.26 | -0.13% | $45.98 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.13% | -1.63% | |
| Q3 | $0.26 | -0.25% | $48.35 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.92% | -0.62% | |
| Q2 | $0.26 | 0.06% | $52.90 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.72% | +0.72% | |
| Q1 | $0.26 | -0.50% | $49.51 | 5 | yes | yes | -6.52% | -0.48% | |
| Q4 | $0.25 | -0.16% | $42.88 | 10 | no | yes | -3.47% | -1.46% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 9 | 45% | |
| 2–3 days | 5 | 25% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
Pre-filled with HRL's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical HRL ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
+0.22%
Win rate (20 trades)
80%
Cumulative P&L
+4.45%
Buy & hold (same sample)
-30.01%
Best event
+1.40%
Worst event
-4.36%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · HRL (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| -1.46% | |
| +0.53% | |
| +0.49% | |
| +0.54% | |
| +0.57% | |
| +0.59% | |
| -0.06% | |
| +0.69% | |
| -2.98% | |
| +0.89% | |
| +0.21% | |
| +0.91% | |
| +0.90% | |
| +0.97% | |
| +0.96% | |
| -4.36% | |
| +1.23% | |
| +1.26% | |
| +1.40% | |
| +1.18% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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