Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what HRL is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$7.13
Method range
$7.13 – $35.46
median $17.66
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $7.13 | -69.81% |
| Exit multiple | $35.46 | +50.13% |
| Analyst target | $25.67 | +8.68% |
| Graham number | $9.64 | -59.19% |
- Forward DCF$7.13
- Exit multiple$35.46
- Analyst target$25.67
- Graham number$9.64
Stock price
$23.62
FCF / share (TTM)
$0.18
3Y FCF CAGR
-8.9%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$1.92
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
21.7%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -1131.4% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
-8.9%
Your model implies
21.7%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at -9% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | 20.2% | 18.5% | 16.5% | 14.1% | 11.0% |
| 5.1% | 20.6% | 19.0% | 17.1% | 14.8% | 11.9% |
| 6.1% | 24.4% | 23.1% | 21.7% | 20.0% | 18.1% |
| 7.1% | 27.7% | 26.6% | 25.5% | 24.2% | 22.7% |
| 8.1% | 30.6% | 29.7% | 28.8% | 27.7% | 26.5% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$2.2B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.31
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Hormel Foods (HRL) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation