Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what HRL is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$6.86
Method range
$6.86 – $35.41
median $16.57
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $6.86 | -72.81% |
| Exit multiple | $35.41 | +40.45% |
| Analyst target | $23.50 | -6.78% |
| Graham number | $9.64 | -61.76% |
- Forward DCF$6.86
- Exit multiple$35.41
- Analyst target$23.50
- Graham number$9.64
Stock price
$25.21
FCF / share (TTM)
$0.18
3Y FCF CAGR
-8.9%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$1.84
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
23.3%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -1,272.0% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
-8.9%
Your model implies
23.3%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at -9% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | 21.0% | 19.3% | 17.3% | 14.9% | 11.8% |
| 5.3% | 22.3% | 20.7% | 18.9% | 16.7% | 14.1% |
| 6.3% | 25.9% | 24.7% | 23.3% | 21.7% | 19.9% |
| 7.3% | 29.2% | 28.1% | 27.0% | 25.8% | 24.4% |
| 8.3% | 32.1% | 31.2% | 30.3% | 29.2% | 28.1% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$2.19B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.33
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Hormel Foods (HRL) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
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- Dividend Profile4.63% yield
- Dividend Calculator
- Dividend Forecast
- Dividend Capture
- Stock Split History7 splits
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.