Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what IBM is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$467.55
Method range
$32.00 – $467.55
median $305.90
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $467.55 | +64.15% |
| Exit multiple | $300.47 | +5.49% |
| Analyst target | $311.33 | +9.30% |
| Graham number | $32.00 | -88.76% |
- Forward DCF$467.55
- Exit multiple$300.47
- Analyst target$311.33
- Graham number$32.00
Stock price
$284.84
FCF / share (TTM)
$5.09
3Y FCF CAGR
2.4%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$96.53
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
16.3%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -195.1% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
2.4%
Your model implies
16.3%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 2% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.9% | 12.3% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 6.4% |
| 6.9% | 15.3% | 14.4% | 13.3% | 12.1% | 10.7% |
| 7.9% | 18.0% | 17.2% | 16.3% | 15.3% | 14.3% |
| 8.9% | 20.4% | 19.7% | 19.0% | 18.2% | 17.3% |
| 9.9% | 22.7% | 22.1% | 21.5% | 20.8% | 20.0% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$53.5B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.67
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
IBM (IBM) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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