Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what IBM is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$451.77
Method range
$43.59 – $451.77
median $289.26
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $451.77 | +119.55% |
| Exit multiple | $293.23 | +42.51% |
| Analyst target | $285.29 | +38.65% |
| Graham number | $43.59 | -78.82% |
- Forward DCF$451.77
- Exit multiple$293.23
- Analyst target$285.29
- Graham number$43.59
Stock price
$205.77
FCF / share (TTM)
$3.18
3Y FCF CAGR
2.4%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$58.43
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
18.7%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -252.2% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
2.4%
Your model implies
18.7%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 2% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.0% | 14.7% | 13.5% | 12.2% | 10.7% | 8.9% |
| 7.0% | 17.7% | 16.7% | 15.7% | 14.5% | 13.2% |
| 8.0% | 20.4% | 19.6% | 18.7% | 17.7% | 16.7% |
| 9.0% | 22.9% | 22.2% | 21.4% | 20.6% | 19.7% |
| 10.0% | 25.2% | 24.5% | 23.9% | 23.2% | 22.4% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.40
Low vs growth
Net debt
$53.5B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.68
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
IBM (IBM) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
- Buybacks0.40% TTM
- Dividend Profile3.27% yield
- Dividend Calculator
- Dividend Forecast
- Dividend Capture
- Stock Split History8 splits
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.